Points per game...a statistical view of our start

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Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby camel » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:20 pm

I thought I’d take some inspiration from the film Moneyball (tenuous link) and look at what we need to achieve to stay up from a more statistical perspective. I think, from looking back, our target this season should be 50pts to stay up. So what does that mean?
 
Firstly 50pts divided by 46 games = average point requirements of 1.09 points per game (ppg)
 
What do we have at the moment?
 
4pts in 6 games = 0.66ppg
 
So what do we need over the rest of the season to get to 50pts based on where we are now?
 
46pts from 40 games = 1.15ppg
 
The required 1.15ppg is only slightly higher than the opening 1.09ppg. But what if we carry on our current average of 0.66ppg to 10, 15 or 20 games in to the season?
 
After 10 games we’d have 6.6pts (rounded to 7pts) which would mean we need 1.19 ppg going forward
After 15 games we’d have 9.9pts (rounded to 10pts) which would mean we need to average 1.29ppg
After 20 games we’d have 13.2pts (rounded to 13pts) which would mean we need to take 1.42ppg
 
Interestingly if we work on an assumption we lose to the top third, draw with the middle third and win against the bottom third it would give us W,D,L over 3 games which equals 4 points averaged out to 1.33ppg.
 
I’m not sure how useful it is but it gives a different perspective on things and maybe shows we have a bit more time before we need to panic, but that somewhere between 15 and 20 games if we are still averaging 0.66ppg we will start to be in a fair bit of trouble.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby voodoobluesman » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:34 pm

LOVE IT, camel!

That should mean that if we only win one game in three, then it's not enough to get us to that place, we need to win one, and draw one in three at least to get to that level.

I suppose on the other side, we can't afford to lose more than one game in three.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby camel » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:34 pm

voodoobluesman wrote:LOVE IT, camel!

That should mean that if we only win one game in three, then it's not enough to get us to that place, we need to win one, and draw one in three at least to get to that level.

I suppose on the other side, we can't afford to lose more than one game in three.


I think its probably a bit easier to expand it to six game sequences at the moment now I look at it again. 2 wins and 1 draw with 3 defeats in six games would give 1.16ppg....just enough to see us home.

I should point out all of this was worked out in a quick coffee break. I thought I'd post it quickly before the emotions of tonight, whatever the result may be.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby madasahatter » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:53 pm

Different league, but last year, as I recall, Guiseley started their season with 3 points from their first 13 games. They then doubled their points tally with a 6-1 thumping of York - the rest, as they say, is history.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby RyRover » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:22 pm

Love this. I must be a geek or something! MONEYBALL MONEYBALL MONEYBALL
...Because we know Tranmere will come back but it's WOOLERY AT THE OTHER ENNNNNDDDD......GOAL 3-1 to Forest Green
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby Tommo » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:37 am

Interesting. A lot depends though on how many points are going to be required. I think that has varied from around 50 to around 40 in recent seasons.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby camel » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:44 am

Tommo wrote:Interesting. A lot depends though on how many points are going to be required. I think that has varied from around 50 to around 40 in recent seasons.


I looked back four or five years. One year was something as low as around 36. I came to a conclusion that 50 is a safe target and that was probably a good place to start. I think there was one year where 50 wouldn't keep you up. One thing is for sure, this isn't an easy league to predict!

I only started looking at it as I tried to put myself in Dale Vince's shoes. If I was him I'd try and have a number of key performance indicators of which this would probably be one. I think it shows there isn't a knee jerk reaction required and Mark Cooper probably has more time to turn it around than I had originally thought. It certainly put me at ease a little. It's easy to get caught up in the emotion of the game and get carried away.

Whatever happens, hopefully the points actually required is much lower and we will be well clear of it.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby camel » Sat Sep 23, 2017 9:47 pm

Some different stats.

We have played 810 minutes of L2 football.

We have led for 36 mins.
We have been level for 364.
We have been behind for 410.

In 9 games we have led twice, holding on for a win once.

In the form table of last six games we have taken 1 point from a possible 18, scoring 4 goals and conceding 15 along the way. We are bottom of the league table and the form table. But they same form is temporary and class is permanent or something.

On the home Vs away front 80% of our points have come at home as have 70% of our goals scored, whilst letting in 50% of our goals. Tuesday would be the perfect time to even out that points and goal tally.

We are lucky enough to have seen our team win at home though. Spare a thought for Port Vale fans as they are the only team not to do so - imagine that.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby Tommo » Sun Sep 24, 2017 7:28 am

Very interesting Camel, thanks. Puts out problems in a stark light
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby Kentstripe » Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:06 am

For me, our upcoming home games look crucial. In the next month we have Accrington, Newport and Morecambe at home. The away games look very tough.

We need to be getting at least 5 points from those home games to take us into November, where the fixtures do look a bit kinder. Crawley, Cheltenham and Chesterfield are all likely to be in the bottom third, and Crewe aren't tearing up any trees either. If we could come out of November with 18-20 points on the board after what will be 20 league games, we'll be heading towards the sort of ppg we'll likely need to stay up.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby Tommo » Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:26 am

There's a big if in there though Kentstripe.

I agree that we have to get something from our October home games otherwise we have nothing to build on when the relatively easier fixtures come around. We proved what seems like an eon ago against Barnet, Newport (albeit in a meaningless cup), MK Dons and Yeovil that we can be competitive at home. But even then the weaknesses were pretty clear and we were at full stretch. Now confidence is shot and Doidge, for example, seems to have lost the faith.

Somehow we have to conjure up a point or three to turn things around but it remains hard to see where that is going to come from. Fortunately Chesterfield and Port Vale are no better placed but they will surely be looking for a turning point too and we can't wait until November to find ours.

MC says he needs the players to work harder and take more responsibility because he is already working as hard as he can. I do think some of the senior players (Laird, Doidge recently, Noble) have been off form but the ultimate responsibility lies with MC. If he really can't work any harder and get things more right with the ingredients he has then we are just relying on him getting more luck. We had that last season and we could do with a slice now. Otherwise we are doomed to a season of misery on this forum.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby michael » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:04 am

Sort of sums it up Tommo.

relying on luck

i don't see what else Cooper can do.
he can keep shuffling the pack -but the players are just not good enough-not there fault-they are good players and great guys i imagine-but not quite good enough for this league

Mr Cooper brought the ingredients for this season-and they are not good enough.

Equally-i don't see what any other manager can do .

Its all a bit forlorn.

I was always happy in national league-and will be again-but it just seems such a waste having come this far, to throw it all away as Mr Cooper has done with his atrocious summer recruitment programme
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby camel » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:13 pm

1pt from our last 7 games outs us on 0.143ppg.

Sticking to the 50pt to guarantee safety we need 1.25ppg for the remaining 36 games.

If we assume it's a poor season for the bottom three and want to take that risk it's 0.97ppg to get to 40 points.

At our recent run rate since the wheels fell off a bit in respect of points gained (0.143ppg) we will end the season on 10 points.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby Kentstripe » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:17 pm

camel wrote:At our recent run rate since the wheels fell off a bit in respect of points gained (0.143ppg) we will end the season on 10 points.


Good god. Imagine we did that.

Mind you, as long as 2 other teams get less then that..... :lol:
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby camel » Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:31 pm

Kentstripe wrote:
camel wrote:At our recent run rate since the wheels fell off a bit in respect of points gained (0.143ppg) we will end the season on 10 points.


Good god. Imagine we did that.

Mind you, as long as 2 other teams get less then that..... :lol:


From what I've seen, it seems a war of attrition to a degree at the bottom in this league. Every point fought for and won is huge.

When I look at this squad we are better than that.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby 20yrs and counting » Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:39 pm

Agree next 3 games vital. Players must be aware they are in relegation scrap now. Trouble is, doubt whether there are 2 worst teams than ourselves. Lets hope the players galvanise cause their mental strength will be sorely tested, especially if crowds dwindle and start to turn on them.

Really hope our support still get behind the team, you can see they are battling, just sadly, it looks like either too inexperienced, over the hill or not good enough in the 1st place. This was down to summer recruitment for whatever reason, which is yet to come to light. Hope to be proved wrong,

Can MC get a defensive coach in, organisation on set pieces atrocious. We cannot carry on walking down this path, something has to change
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby garyjj » Wed Sep 27, 2017 3:01 pm

20yrs and counting wrote:Agree next 3 games vital. Players must be aware they are in relegation scrap now. Trouble is, doubt whether there are 2 worst teams than ourselves. Lets hope the players galvanise cause their mental strength will be sorely tested, especially if crowds dwindle and start to turn on them.

Really hope our support still get behind the team, you can see they are battling, just sadly, it looks like either too inexperienced, over the hill or not good enough in the 1st place. This was down to summer recruitment for whatever reason, which is yet to come to light. Hope to be proved wrong,

Can MC get a defensive coach in, organisation on set pieces atrocious. We cannot carry on walking down this path, something has to change



Get a defensive coach?? We had plenty of players last night with years of football league appearances you don't suddenly forget how to be a defender.... Our tactics are dangerous, they cause mistakes and make it so much easier for mistakes to occur, I'm afraid a defensive coach will not come near us knowing we have a crazy scientist in charge who chops and changes every game and seems to make up formations as he goes along. We won't defend any better unless the King is taken off his throne.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby camel » Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:26 pm

Hope.

That seems to be the feeling this week on the forum after an improved performance, so reflecting that I picked out the below.

Newport spent 207 days in the relegation spaces last season and survived.

Hartlepool spent a meagre 15 in the drop zone and went down.

Never. stop. fighting.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby Tommo » Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:36 am

camel wrote:Hope.

That seems to be the feeling this week on the forum after an improved performance, so reflecting that I picked out the below.

Newport spent 207 days in the relegation spaces last season and survived.

Hartlepool spent a meagre 15 in the drop zone and went down.

Never. stop. fighting.


Good post, thanks for the reminder.
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