Points per game...a statistical view of our start

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Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby camel » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:20 pm

I thought I’d take some inspiration from the film Moneyball (tenuous link) and look at what we need to achieve to stay up from a more statistical perspective. I think, from looking back, our target this season should be 50pts to stay up. So what does that mean?
 
Firstly 50pts divided by 46 games = average point requirements of 1.09 points per game (ppg)
 
What do we have at the moment?
 
4pts in 6 games = 0.66ppg
 
So what do we need over the rest of the season to get to 50pts based on where we are now?
 
46pts from 40 games = 1.15ppg
 
The required 1.15ppg is only slightly higher than the opening 1.09ppg. But what if we carry on our current average of 0.66ppg to 10, 15 or 20 games in to the season?
 
After 10 games we’d have 6.6pts (rounded to 7pts) which would mean we need 1.19 ppg going forward
After 15 games we’d have 9.9pts (rounded to 10pts) which would mean we need to average 1.29ppg
After 20 games we’d have 13.2pts (rounded to 13pts) which would mean we need to take 1.42ppg
 
Interestingly if we work on an assumption we lose to the top third, draw with the middle third and win against the bottom third it would give us W,D,L over 3 games which equals 4 points averaged out to 1.33ppg.
 
I’m not sure how useful it is but it gives a different perspective on things and maybe shows we have a bit more time before we need to panic, but that somewhere between 15 and 20 games if we are still averaging 0.66ppg we will start to be in a fair bit of trouble.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby voodoobluesman » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:34 pm

LOVE IT, camel!

That should mean that if we only win one game in three, then it's not enough to get us to that place, we need to win one, and draw one in three at least to get to that level.

I suppose on the other side, we can't afford to lose more than one game in three.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby camel » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:34 pm

voodoobluesman wrote:LOVE IT, camel!

That should mean that if we only win one game in three, then it's not enough to get us to that place, we need to win one, and draw one in three at least to get to that level.

I suppose on the other side, we can't afford to lose more than one game in three.


I think its probably a bit easier to expand it to six game sequences at the moment now I look at it again. 2 wins and 1 draw with 3 defeats in six games would give 1.16ppg....just enough to see us home.

I should point out all of this was worked out in a quick coffee break. I thought I'd post it quickly before the emotions of tonight, whatever the result may be.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby madasahatter » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:53 pm

Different league, but last year, as I recall, Guiseley started their season with 3 points from their first 13 games. They then doubled their points tally with a 6-1 thumping of York - the rest, as they say, is history.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby RyRover » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:22 pm

Love this. I must be a geek or something! MONEYBALL MONEYBALL MONEYBALL
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby Tommo » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:37 am

Interesting. A lot depends though on how many points are going to be required. I think that has varied from around 50 to around 40 in recent seasons.
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Re: Points per game...a statistical view of our start

Postby camel » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:44 am

Tommo wrote:Interesting. A lot depends though on how many points are going to be required. I think that has varied from around 50 to around 40 in recent seasons.


I looked back four or five years. One year was something as low as around 36. I came to a conclusion that 50 is a safe target and that was probably a good place to start. I think there was one year where 50 wouldn't keep you up. One thing is for sure, this isn't an easy league to predict!

I only started looking at it as I tried to put myself in Dale Vince's shoes. If I was him I'd try and have a number of key performance indicators of which this would probably be one. I think it shows there isn't a knee jerk reaction required and Mark Cooper probably has more time to turn it around than I had originally thought. It certainly put me at ease a little. It's easy to get caught up in the emotion of the game and get carried away.

Whatever happens, hopefully the points actually required is much lower and we will be well clear of it.
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