Let's have some honesty...

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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby gasman » Fri Feb 02, 2018 12:25 am

Kentstripe wrote:
SkunkMan wrote:I think we need 20 more points to stay up. From 16 games. I'm afraid I just can't see it happening currently. We don't get enough shots on target and despite the defensive reinforcements, we still leak too many soft goals.

I really hope I'm wrong, of course, but I think we're going down :cry:


As I said in another thread, if we can replicate the ppg we've managed so far against the bottom 10, 1.7, in the remaining 8 games we have against those sides, that will get us another 14 points. What we'll then need is another 6 or so from the other 8 games, which isn't impossible by any means.



Remember Bristol Rovers were relegated to the conference on goal difference and with a points total of 50. Admittedly that was an unusually high number.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby candy » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:03 am

tommyd wrote:We'll go down with cooper in charge, if we get someone else (god knows who!) we may stay up.


agreed!
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby The Cumbrian » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:58 am

Cooper has a record of starting off well with teams and then failing. He almost did that last season. Hopefully there will be a good start with this whole new team he has got and wecwill collect enough points to see us safe.

Then he should go. Join the list of money sauanderers that have managed this club.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby Kentstripe » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:48 am

The Cumbrian wrote:Cooper has a record of starting off well with teams and then failing. He almost did that last season. Hopefully there will be a good start with this whole new team he has got and wecwill collect enough points to see us safe.

Then he should go. Join the list of money sauanderers that have managed this club.


If he keeps us up, I can't see him going. He'll have taken the club up a league and then kept them there. If DV is backing him now, why would that change if we actually improve?

A number of the players brought in this January have been signed on 18 month deals, which says to me we're planning ahead with players the current management want. That will change if we go down, obviously.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby tommyd » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:15 am

Kentstripe wrote:
The Cumbrian wrote:Cooper has a record of starting off well with teams and then failing. He almost did that last season. Hopefully there will be a good start with this whole new team he has got and wecwill collect enough points to see us safe.

Then he should go. Join the list of money sauanderers that have managed this club.


If he keeps us up, I can't see him going. He'll have taken the club up a league and then kept them there. If DV is backing him now, why would that change if we actually improve?

A number of the players brought in this January have been signed on 18 month deals, which says to me we're planning ahead with players the current management want. That will change if we go down, obviously.


The problem is I don't think Dale has even considered that we might go down.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby SkunkMan » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:46 am

gasman wrote:
Kentstripe wrote:
SkunkMan wrote:I think we need 20 more points to stay up. From 16 games. I'm afraid I just can't see it happening currently. We don't get enough shots on target and despite the defensive reinforcements, we still leak too many soft goals.

I really hope I'm wrong, of course, but I think we're going down :cry:


As I said in another thread, if we can replicate the ppg we've managed so far against the bottom 10, 1.7, in the remaining 8 games we have against those sides, that will get us another 14 points. What we'll then need is another 6 or so from the other 8 games, which isn't impossible by any means.



Remember Bristol Rovers were relegated to the conference on goal difference and with a points total of 50. Admittedly that was an unusually high number.


Oh absolutely - I fully accept that there is no 'guaranteed' number of points that will keep a team up, but typically it is 47-48 and this season I think it will be slightly lower. Despite one or two encouraging wins since the turn of the year, I am just not seeing where those 20+ points will come from I'm afraid. I can see a 'last-day-of-the-season-heartbreak' scenario unfolding. We are second bottom after 30 games because we deserve to be.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby SkunkMan » Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:56 am

Interestingly, based on my interpretation in some cases as to whether posters are giving a definite opinion, so far ten think we are going down and ten think we are staying up... :lol:
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby Irish-Rover » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:06 am

As someone who was optimistic after the Port Vale and Cambridge home wins (ignoring Swindon result) - after seeing both the Carlisle and Exeter games I no longer feel that way.

I think we will go down.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby 20yrs and counting » Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:54 am

Our away form will send us down. I know home form is more important, but u still have to snatch the odd few points away. Our basic errors where we switch off for a few seconds prevent us doing that. Footie man is right saying we need to win against those around us. Which I believe we will do at home. It’s picking up points away at Morecombe, Yeovil, Barnet and Cheltenham which could decide our fate.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby voodoobluesman » Fri Feb 02, 2018 1:50 pm

Kentstripe wrote:
The Cumbrian wrote:Cooper has a record of starting off well with teams and then failing. He almost did that last season. Hopefully there will be a good start with this whole new team he has got and wecwill collect enough points to see us safe.

Then he should go. Join the list of money sauanderers that have managed this club.


If he keeps us up, I can't see him going. He'll have taken the club up a league and then kept them there. If DV is backing him now, why would that change if we actually improve?

A number of the players brought in this January have been signed on 18 month deals, which says to me we're planning ahead with players the current management want. That will change if we go down, obviously.


The length of a player's contract is of no consequence any more. All they have to do is to say that they're homesick and they get released!
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby cookiemonster » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:18 pm

What frustrates me most is that on much recent evidence (e.g. the first half on Wednesday evening) there is not much to choose between FGR and sides right at the top of L2. It's not like we go to place like Exeter and get battered (at least not since November).

But it's in the bottom 2 we find ourselves and if I was a betting man I would put money on a return to the National League.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby chrism » Fri Feb 02, 2018 2:58 pm

If we don't beat the teams around us and it goes to the wire as many seem to think then I think we're in trouble finishing with Luton away and Grimsby home, especially if they need points for promotion and to avoid relegation. lots of ifs and buts, and maybe a conspiracy or two - if Grimsby form continues could be an interesting last day, as Barnet are also playing Centerfield.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby Robert+89 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 3:21 pm

50/50 we should not really go down but we need to get a run together. I can't see us getting anything out of our next two game. Hope we do t get any 1st teamers injured.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby phil2010 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:51 pm

I would love to answer 'yes, we will stay up', but the following stats don't look good.

League Division 2
Points earned by occupants of 22nd place: 2007/8-2016/17

16/17 Newport 48
15/16 Newport 43
14/15 Hartlepool 45
13/14 Wycombe 50
12/13 Dagenham 51
11/12 Barnet 46
10/11 Barnet 48
09/10 Cheltenham 48
08/09 Grimsby 41
07/08 Chester 47

Mean average points for clubs finishing in 22nd place 2007/8-2016/17

46.7

Season 2017/18 FGR to date:

Played 30 - points 26
Mean average .86 per game
Mean average per game x 46 games = 39.56 points

Since Jan 1st. 2018
Played 6 - points 3
Mean average .5 per game
Mean average per game x 46 games = 23 points

Assuming mean average points total of 46.7 needed to finish 22nd in 2017/18 (of course, it may be a higher total needed) FGR will need 21 more points, or 7 wins, from remaining 16 games which is equal to amount of wins from 30 games in 2017/18 to date.

So it looks like we need seven more wins, starting with Coventry tomorrow. Oh dear.........
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby Kentstripe » Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:05 pm

phil2010 wrote:I
Since Jan 1st. 2018
Played 6 - points 3
Mean average .5 per game


Those stats are incorrect, we had 2 wins in January, 6 points = mean average 1 per game.

Also the new signings were unavailable for the first game in January, so the mean average with the new signings playing is actually 1.2 points per game. Keep that up and that's another 19 points. Will that be enough?
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby Greeners Jnr » Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:25 pm

I honestly believe it'll go down to the final game of the season! Just keeping fingers crossed for same result for Greeners and me that we had in 1988 the first ever automatic relegation season and the famous Orient game at Turf Moor.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby phil2010 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:29 pm

Apologies, missed the home win v Port Vale this January.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby Kentstripe » Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:09 pm

In terms of previous years, rather then look at how many points the team in 22nd got, it's probably better to look at how many points the team in 23rd got, as that gives a clearer idea of the exact tally needed to actually stay up in those seasons.

07/98 Mansfield 42
08/09 Chester 37
09/10 Grimsby 44
10/11 Lincoln 47
11/12 Hereford 44
12/13 Barnet 51
13/14 Bristol Rovers 50
14/15 Cheltenham 41
15/16 Dagenham 34
16/17 Hartlepool 46

Working that out, the average points total of the team finishing 23rd over the last 10 years is 44.

So based on that 45 required to stay up. Which if we can at least maintain the 1.2 ppg we've managed so far with the new signings on board, we will achieve.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby Tommo » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:20 pm

Sky predictions have us relegated on goal difference with 37 points. That incorporates an assumption we will lose to Coventry and Newport. We need to get points from one of those two to improve the forecasts.

I think 45 points is a good target that should see us safe - just. Recent form suggests that is going to be a stretch though. As others have said, the margins are small so I remain optimistic that we can just improve a little bit and survive.
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Re: Let's have some honesty...

Postby Tim13 » Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:57 pm

In Conference days we were reprieved by the AGM Cup (twice AFAIR). We don't have that back-stop now but, if we were to finish 23rd, I understand we may yet be reprieved by the 3G pitch debacle going on at Maidstone, Bromley and Sutton.

I tend to think we will do slightly better than 23rd however.

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