Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Postby Too occasional fan » Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:07 am

The Old TomCat wrote:
The country voted OUT whether we agree or disagree.
End of story.

Assuming you mean that people do not change their minds, and more to the point, should not be allowed to:

This country also voted Tony Blair in with a majority of 179 seats.
Why is Tony Blair not still Prime Minister?

Nigel Farage wrote:In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the Remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.


Why is it OK for Leave to say this, but not Remain?
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Re: Brexit

Postby Referee » Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:23 am

The Old TomCat wrote:This Brexit thread and Poetry thread is becoming silly.
The country voted OUT whether we agree or disagree.
End of story.

BTW Foggy it was me who was banned from forum for a fortnight after Brexit accused of being racist.
It was nothing of the sort. All I did was crib reports from the regional papers that at the time I bought every day.
I didn't know it was racist to write about the Scots or Irish or Welsh!
[The moderator was obviously a very blind biased and stupid bad loser who voted Remain]
Nevertheless two weeks later I posted exact same words and they are still on site.

I'm done. Tuesday will be decision day and by end of month UK will once again be a free and happy nation. [Unless of course the MPs foul it up]


Dear OTC.

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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Fri Mar 08, 2019 12:07 pm

Frankly it doesn’t matter if we voted remain or leave, the single biggest threat to our democracy and reputation of our country is that a referendum that was proven to be fraudulent is being allowed to stand. I cannot overemphasise just how dangerous an example that is to set, and would have damaging consequences beyond the (already fairly catastrophic) effects of Brexit.

For reference, the electoral commission has the power to declare referenda null and void if they find that a significant level of fraud has taken place (ie. May have changed the end result). As the 52-48 split is a fairly marginal one, and the extent of the fraud has been proven to be widespread, there’s clearly an issue there.
The problem for the electoral commission is that these powers are only available to them when the referendum in question has a legally binding result. In legal terms, the Brexit referendum is just an advisory poll, the politicians have no legal responsibility to act upon it. This was something decided by the seemingly bottomless pit of wisdom that is David Cameron, in that we are still digging and are yet to find any.

As the result of the referendum is not legally binding (even though the politicians are treating it as though it is) the electoral commission only have the power to fine the offending party and make recommendations to the government, both of which they have done. They have also stated that had the referendum been a legally binding one, they certainly would have declared it null and void and implemented a re-run.

It’s a thouroughly sad state of affairs for our country. And speaking as a younger person who’s entire working life will be shaped by this referendum, the absolute minimum I’d want to see from this decision is that it was made legally, and that this country was absolutely sure.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Timb » Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:47 pm

"By the end of the month (the) UK will once again be a free and happy nation"

What kind of nation is it that is inhabiting your mind?

Why do you feel unhappy and more importantly that you or perhaps we, are not free?

What a weird statement to make.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Greeners » Fri Mar 08, 2019 2:57 pm

Hi dd
How do you know when a politician is lying?
His lips are moving.

Both sides used fraudulent claims. There is no such thing as a futurologist who KNOWS what will come to pass.
So, for many of us, it's the past record which decides which way we will vote.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Too occasional fan » Fri Mar 08, 2019 3:55 pm

Some lies were far bigger than others, though.
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Re: Brexit

Postby TreeHugger » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:03 pm

dursleydog wrote:Frankly it doesn’t matter if we voted remain or leave, the single biggest threat to our democracy and reputation of our country is that a referendum that was proven to be fraudulent is being allowed to stand. I cannot overemphasise just how dangerous an example that is to set, and would have damaging consequences beyond the (already fairly catastrophic) effects of Brexit.

For reference, the electoral commission has the power to declare referenda null and void if they find that a significant level of fraud has taken place (ie. May have changed the end result). As the 52-48 split is a fairly marginal one, and the extent of the fraud has been proven to be widespread, there’s clearly an issue there.
The problem for the electoral commission is that these powers are only available to them when the referendum in question has a legally binding result. In legal terms, the Brexit referendum is just an advisory poll, the politicians have no legal responsibility to act upon it. This was something decided by the seemingly bottomless pit of wisdom that is David Cameron, in that we are still digging and are yet to find any.

As the result of the referendum is not legally binding (even though the politicians are treating it as though it is) the electoral commission only have the power to fine the offending party and make recommendations to the government, both of which they have done. They have also stated that had the referendum been a legally binding one, they certainly would have declared it null and void and implemented a re-run.

It’s a thouroughly sad state of affairs for our country. And speaking as a younger person who’s entire working life will be shaped by this referendum, the absolute minimum I’d want to see from this decision is that it was made legally, and that this country was absolutely sure.


Exactly this ^

An excellent post on what is a fascinating and eye-opening thread.

It’s strange in a way. As a FGR supporter amongst other FGR supporters, I often assume that we share a common ethos, and have similar views (on all but tactics and team selection of course). This is blatantly very naive and it’s disappointing to me that there are others on here that have views on things like Brexit that oppose mine so massively. But it’s an unfair expectation. There will probably always be those that oppose countries seeking common goals and togetherness, and there will always those who want to satisfy their own greed at the expense of others. We probably need a complete generational shift at the top end before things will change. Even in Nailsworth.
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Re: Brexit

Postby TreeHugger » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:11 pm

My suspicion is that Brexit may not actually happen. I think Teresa May will be quite happy to get to a point where she can say that it is undeliverable, after which she’ll propose a second referendum. I’m confident that there’d be a quite different result second time around. Apart from anything else, statistically speaking, more Leave voters are likely to have died since the referendum than Remainers. And I include members of my own family in that!
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Re: Brexit

Postby Fartvs Antiqvvs » Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:25 pm

I'm thinking that this topic is accelerating to closure by the moderators, as sadly we now appear to be turning FGR supporters into broken friendships on here. :(
Quo tendimus?

Nos venit!
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Re: Brexit

Postby cookiemonster » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:02 pm

TreeHugger wrote:My suspicion is that Brexit may not actually happen. I think Teresa May will be quite happy to get to a point where she can say that it is undeliverable, after which she’ll propose a second referendum. I’m confident that there’d be a quite different result second time around. Apart from anything else, statistically speaking, more Leave voters are likely to have died since the referendum than Remainers. And I include members of my own family in that!


But I was taught way back in my University politics course that people tend towards more conservative and right of centre views as they age. So I would bet a good number of middle-aged waiverers have switched to leavers since 2016.
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Re: Brexit

Postby cookiemonster » Fri Mar 08, 2019 8:10 pm

Fartvs Antiqvvs wrote:I'm thinking that this topic is accelerating to closure by the moderators, as sadly we now appear to be turning FGR supporters into broken friendships on here. :(


That would be a shame. For what it's worth I think we will make a dreadful mistake in departing the EU but it won't stop me remaining friends with people like OTC, who seems to hold perfectly honourable views about leaving. If half the country can't be friends with the other half depending on how we voted in the referendum, then the future really is bleak.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:59 pm

Greeners wrote:Hi dd
How do you know when a politician is lying?
His lips are moving.

Both sides used fraudulent claims. There is no such thing as a futurologist who KNOWS what will come to pass.
So, for many of us, it's the past record which decides which way we will vote.


Who said anything about lies? I’m talking about FRAUD.
It’s a given politicians and the media will exaggerate and falsify and outright lie, can’t do much about that.

I’m referring to the breaking of spending limits left right and centre by the Leave campaign. I’m referring to the illegal use of online data via Cambridge Analytica to target potential leave voters with misleading infomation and hidden agendas. I’m referring to the attempts to hide the true sources of funding for the Leave campaign, as Aaron Banks, the single biggest political doner in the country, is under investigation for payments made to him indirectly from the Russian state.

The legitimate concerns and dissatisfaction of the 52% have been illegally hijacked by a bunch of super rich chancers who see Brexit as an opportunity to deregulate business and profit from the resulting financial chaos, preferably from the comfort of their European tax haven far from the consequences, its an absolute sham.
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!

Postby Greeners » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:17 pm

Hi
And of course the Remainers didn't do anything like that.

They just haven't, so far, been shown to do so. After all they played by the rules didn't they?
Or is it just that the eleventh commandment hasn't been broken?

The Eleventh Commandment?????

Thou shalt not get caught!!!

Frankly any money spent by any group other than the official groups has to be immaterial.

There is/was no law that said that I could not spend multiple £s persuading remainers to become leavers or vice versa and that is what practically all media outlets did.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:20 pm

cookiemonster wrote:
TreeHugger wrote:My suspicion is that Brexit may not actually happen. I think Teresa May will be quite happy to get to a point where she can say that it is undeliverable, after which she’ll propose a second referendum. I’m confident that there’d be a quite different result second time around. Apart from anything else, statistically speaking, more Leave voters are likely to have died since the referendum than Remainers. And I include members of my own family in that!


But I was taught way back in my University politics course that people tend towards more conservative and right of centre views as they age. So I would bet a good number of middle-aged waiverers have switched to leavers since 2016.


I expect you’re right that a few have switched, but not enough to offset the demographic shift simply through time with dying and younger voters reaching 18.
Add into that a number of knife edge leave voters who feel let down/lied to/that it’s just not worth all this fuss and I feel remain would win out now.
I think the most up to date polling put it at about 58/42 in favour of remain, and as innacurate as polling can be they’re generally decent at picking up trends and right now that gap is getting bigger and bigger.
For what it’s worth my opinion is that remain would win if it were run again today, but only by a narrow margin of 1-2%. People are changing their minds, but really not many.
Also OTC, do not use BBC question time as a metric for whether people have changed their minds on brexit or not given they literally select their audience to ensure a 52-48 split every time...
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Re: !

Postby dursleydog » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:24 pm

Greeners wrote:Hi
And of course the Remainers didn't do anything like that.

They just haven't, so far, been shown to do so. After all they played by the rules didn't they?
Or is it just that the eleventh commandment hasn't been broken?

The Eleventh Commandment?????

Thou shalt not get caught!!!

Frankly any money spent by any group other than the official groups has to be immaterial.

There is/was no law that said that I could not spend multiple £s persuading remainers to become leavers or vice versa and that is what practically all media outlets did.


No, the remainers didn’t do anything like that actually.
Quite frankly the remain campaign arrogantly thought it was won before it even started. They couldn’t even put together a competent legal campaign so to think they managed an illegal campaign so flawless it never got found out is Trumpian level thinking.

Your point about the funding not really mattering unless it’s from the main groups is a good one. Unfortunately given it was the official Leave campaign that was found guilty of this (as well as the other minor leave groups) all it really does is align with my concern of just how big a deal this is.

In fact, it was exactly that ‘minor groups don’t matter’ approach that the Leave campaign used to cheat. One of the ways they broke spending rules was by running the funds through a minor youth leave group, getting them to distribute official Leave campaign material without declaring it as official campaign spending.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Too occasional fan » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:27 pm

Greeners wrote:Hi
And of course the Remainers didn't do anything like that.

They just haven't, so far, been shown to do so. After all they played by the rules didn't they?
Or is it just that the eleventh commandment hasn't been broken?

The Eleventh Commandment?????

Thou shalt not get caught!!!

Frankly any money spent by any group other than the official groups has to be immaterial.

There is/was no law that said that I could not spend multiple £s persuading remainers to become leavers or vice versa and that is what practically all media outlets did.


Would be good to have some examples. Also if the Electoral Commission have said anything about the Remain campaign.
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Re: !

Postby paulK » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:41 pm

Too occasional fan wrote:[

Would be good to have some examples. Also if the Electoral Commission have said anything about the Remain campaign.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41649995
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Re: !

Postby dursleydog » Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:43 am

paulK wrote:
Too occasional fan wrote:[

Would be good to have some examples. Also if the Electoral Commission have said anything about the Remain campaign.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41649995


A.) That’s definitely a remain supporting group, but it’s not the official Remain campaign and frankly I’ve never heard of it and I follow this stuff pretty closely, they’re a minor hanger on in the general scheme of things.

B.) From the article. “Its return missed out 23 payments totalling £14,307 but wrongly included a separate 47 payments totalling £112,863.”

So they got fined for messing up their return, sounds like a honest mistake. Especially since their return actually suggested they spent MORE than what they actually did! Doesn’t exactly sound like cheating to me...

It’s been a generally very high quality of debate on this page apart from OTC’s “WE WON YOU LOST GET OVER IT” stuff, so it’s good to finally be able to constructively chat about this stuff. I will be providing examples but there’s a lot to shift through and I proofread all of them as the devil really is in the detail.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:16 am

Here’s a pretty good run down of Leave campaign electoral fraud:
A.) Vote Leave (the official campaign) breaking their spending limit of £7m by over £0.5m by running funds through a youth Leave groupcalled BeLeave (who also smashed their spending limit to pieces btw). They were both fined by the electoral commission but that was all the electoral commission could legally do. They were also refferred to the Met Police, but sadly the police decided to not investigate further as it was deemed “too politically sensitive”.

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/ ... ctoral-law

B.) Leave.EU, a subsidiary Leave campaign (but still very significant, this was the Farage and UKIP backed one) was also found to have breached electoral spending limits.

https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/ ... estigation

C.) The largest doner (of some £8m) to Leave.EU is currently under criminal investigation for the sourcing of funds. He has strong links to both the Russian state and the ex-Trump advisor Steve Bannon.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&sourc ... 8766766008

D.) And the final big one, Cambridge Analytica. The actual details are pretty complex and explained better in the article than I ever could so I’ll just leave it to them. Cambridge Analytica was under investigation for just how widely used it was by the Leave campaign, but the company shut down before the investigation was completed. It was definitely used on a wide scale by the Trump campaign, and definitely recommended to Leave.EU by Steve Bannon, and Leave.EU were in communication with the firm. The whole thing got blown open by a Leave campaigning whistleblower.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/m ... s-election

Hope all this stuff helps with people forming their own opinions on whether this vitally important referendum was run fairly or not.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Tomiswalking » Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:00 am

Look at them. They shout and argue and blame each other for everything. The way they behave means none of them represent me. Whilst not always understanding the complexities of the subject matter it's easy to see the system is flawed.

For me Brexit highlights this systematic failing. Not because I agree or disagree with the outcome.

Bring on the new age of reason.
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