Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Postby TreeHugger » Wed May 01, 2019 8:08 pm

Fartvs Antiqvvs wrote:The non progress fist our politicians are making of Brexit and the reverse of your coin p/K, leaves only this result:

Image to stay in the EU FOREVER! :lol:


For those younger folks who prefer to stay engaged with the EU, you may not get the comedic reference above.

So to explain; the 1960s character on the coin was of a certain generation and had a fear of invasion from European countries to the east.

Probably explains a lot.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 03, 2019 8:31 am

Local election results pretty unequivocally show a huge support for remaining in the EU, even more so than I expected.

Tories getting absolutely hammered, but the brexit vote hasn’t gone anywhere as UKIP fall too. I expect a few leave supports may have stayed at home waiting for the Brexit Party and the European elections, but even considering that it’s a huge shift to remain being shown here.

Labour finally getting punished for their fence sitting on brexit, with remainers jumping ship to either the Lib Dem’s or Greens. Lib Dem’s have made huge gains, and the Greens have done quite nicely too. Independent candidates doing extremely well off the back of the failure of the two main parties.

So, where has all the leave support gone? The mood of the country is swinging towards a second referendum faster than you can say antidisestablishmentarianism
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Re: Brexit

Postby The Old TomCat » Fri May 03, 2019 9:15 am

dursleydog wrote:Local election results pretty unequivocally show a huge support for remaining in the EU, even more so than I expected.



On the contrary the local elections show that the public want Brexit sorted.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 03, 2019 9:39 am

The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:Local election results pretty unequivocally show a huge support for remaining in the EU, even more so than I expected.



On the contrary the local elections show that the public want Brexit sorted.


Tories - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a deal - Huge vote drop
Labour - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a customs union - Vote drop
UKIP - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a no deal - Huge vote drop

Lib Dems and Greens - Actively supporting a 2nd referendum - Massive vote increase

Evidence is a pretty crucial part of any constructive debate, would you like to provide some?
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Re: Brexit

Postby The Old TomCat » Fri May 03, 2019 10:08 am

dursleydog wrote:
The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:Local election results pretty unequivocally show a huge support for remaining in the EU, even more so than I expected.



On the contrary the local elections show that the public want Brexit sorted.


Tories - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a deal - Huge vote drop
Labour - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a customs union - Vote drop
UKIP - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a no deal - Huge vote drop

Lib Dems and Greens - Actively supporting a 2nd referendum - Massive vote increase

Evidence is a pretty crucial part of any constructive debate, would you like to provide some?

Using your own facts it shows an overwhelming massive support for Brexit.
Tory & Labour - both Brexit parties won most votes and seats
Remainers - lot less votes than at Referendum.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 03, 2019 10:36 am

The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:
The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:Local election results pretty unequivocally show a huge support for remaining in the EU, even more so than I expected.



On the contrary the local elections show that the public want Brexit sorted.


Tories - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a deal - Huge vote drop
Labour - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a customs union - Vote drop
UKIP - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a no deal - Huge vote drop

Lib Dems and Greens - Actively supporting a 2nd referendum - Massive vote increase

Evidence is a pretty crucial part of any constructive debate, would you like to provide some?

Using your own facts it shows an overwhelming massive support for Brexit.
Tory & Labour - both Brexit parties won most votes and seats
Remainers - lot less votes than at Referendum.


For better or worse we live in a two party political system, it would take something exceptionally catastrophic for the Tories and Labour to not be the two largest parties. The fact the Lib Dems are almost catching Labour in these elections (only half the votes are in so far) is extraordinary. The fact the Conservatives could also lose around 800 seats is equally so.

Turnout of local elections is always poor, unless they coincide with a general election. The turnout for this was about in line with previous local elections that didn't coincide with a GE. To directly compare numbers of votes with the referendum is to compare apples and oranges. By that measure, the leavers have far far less votes than the referendum too. Did I make that argument? No, because it's idiotic. Your answer betrays an awful lot of seeing what you want to see, and an almost complete (wilful?) lack of understanding of the political context.

The protests of Leave voters has played its role in hurting the major parties, but had there been an especially strong appetite for the "Get on with Brexit' message, UKIP would've done fairly well. UKIP have been decimated, losing 54 counsellors and are now down to just 17. A clearer picture will emerge at the European elections soon, where the Leave support is rallying behind the ultimate career politician and child of the establishment in Farage and his single-issue protest only Brexit Party. I'm confident that the pro-remain parties will carry these positive results forward into those elections and put up an exceptionally strong fight, and continue to show that the mood of the country is steadily but very surely swinging.

In addition, these results must also be in the context that two of the most ardently pro-remain areas of the UK, London and Scotland, didn't even take part in these local elections. Neither did Bristol, another pro-remain area. Admittedly Wales didn't take part either which may have shown some more support for brexit parties but overall the expected results for those areas not taking part would be more good news for remain parties. Again, interesting to see if this is backed up later this month,
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Re: Brexit

Postby paulK » Fri May 03, 2019 12:55 pm

Personally I think the Euro vote will be a better guide than local elections.

I'm not sure there was a lot of interest from the parties where I am. Independants delivered a leaflet a week before, tories on the day. Lib Dems and Labour? Nowhere to be seen :roll:
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 03, 2019 3:49 pm

paulK wrote:Personally I think the Euro vote will be a better guide than local elections.

I'm not sure there was a lot of interest from the parties where I am. Independants delivered a leaflet a week before, tories on the day. Lib Dems and Labour? Nowhere to be seen :roll:


I agree, but I'm concerned that the Remain vote is simply going to be split up far too much. You'll have many voting Labour still, plus ChangeUK (what a pointless exercise that party is), Lib Dems, Greens, SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales.

Whereas the Leave vote seems to be coalescing around the Brexit Party with some clinging onto the Tories.

Long and short of it is I can see the total 'Remain' votes outnumbering the 'Leave' votes, but the Brexit party being the largest party by a way and that then being seen as a victory for Leave which simply doesn't reflect the mood of the country. Of course Labour's on the fence fudge muddies the waters somewhat which makes analysis difficult, but I'm hopeful the Lib Dems and Greens can put in another good showing. ChangeUK can do one.

It would of course help if the canvassing for these parties wasn't as useless as you describe. Hopefully it'll be better for the Europeans. Sadly I can guarantee Farage will run an effective campaign. Lot easier when you have £2m donated to you from a source that he's refusing to disclose (even tho he'll have to by law eventually).
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Re: Brexit

Postby TreeHugger » Fri May 03, 2019 4:49 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:Local election results pretty unequivocally show a huge support for remaining in the EU, even more so than I expected.



On the contrary the local elections show that the public want Brexit sorted.


:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Brexit

Postby Silver Surfer » Fri May 03, 2019 5:34 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:
The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:Local election results pretty unequivocally show a huge support for remaining in the EU, even more so than I expected.



On the contrary the local elections show that the public want Brexit sorted.


Tories - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a deal - Huge vote drop
Labour - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a customs union - Vote drop
UKIP - Want Brexit sorted in the form of a no deal - Huge vote drop

Lib Dems and Greens - Actively supporting a 2nd referendum - Massive vote increase

Evidence is a pretty crucial part of any constructive debate, would you like to provide some?

Using your own facts it shows an overwhelming massive support for Brexit.
Tory & Labour - both Brexit parties won most votes and seats
Remainers - lot less votes than at Referendum.


Tom, please tell me that was a joke.
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Re: Brexit

Postby The Old TomCat » Thu May 23, 2019 9:34 am

EUROPEAN ELECTIONS

Voted
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Re: Brexit

Postby Silver Surfer » Thu May 23, 2019 2:34 pm

I wonder what will happen to UKIP.
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Re: Brexit

Postby The Old TomCat » Thu May 23, 2019 4:34 pm

Silver Surfer wrote:I wonder what will happen to UKIP.


Washed up has-been's who will consigned to history.
But they were instrumental in getting the Brexit debate into the open.
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Re: Brexit

Postby TreeHugger » Thu May 23, 2019 6:08 pm

Silver Surfer wrote:I wonder what will happen to UKIP.


They legitimised and emboldened the far right and will now sink without trace, leaving everyone else to clear up the mess.
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Re: Brexit

Postby andymac26 » Thu May 23, 2019 8:47 pm

A woman with a tory rosette was sitting outside my polling station again. I asked her; was she not utterly embarrassed, and just how bad does it need to get before she wakes up? She seemed oblivious and unsure what I meant. Remarkable, but no surprise. Sad really.
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Re: Brexit

Postby TreeHugger » Fri May 24, 2019 7:29 am

andymac26 wrote:A woman with a tory rosette was sitting outside my polling station again. I asked her; was she not utterly embarrassed, and just how bad does it need to get before she wakes up? She seemed oblivious and unsure what I meant. Remarkable, but no surprise. Sad really.


This is the problem with the party political system in this country. Supporters of whichever party behave like sheep, blindly following their chosen rosette without much thought over the detail. The Tory supporter who sneers at the Labour supporter wouldn’t stop for a minute to think that the Labour supporter might also have cause to sneer at the Tory supporter. And vice versa. Blissful ignorance.

Political parties should be banned. They’re all as bad as each other. Sick of the lot of ‘em.
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Re: Brexit

Postby The Game Within » Fri May 24, 2019 8:16 am

Treehugger sounds a lot like football supporters.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Too occasional fan » Fri May 24, 2019 12:03 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:
Silver Surfer wrote:I wonder what will happen to UKIP.


Washed up has-been's who will consigned to history.
But they were instrumental in getting the Brexit debate into the open.


They fomented the Brexit debate. Vile.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 24, 2019 1:01 pm

Turnout looked to be appallingly low from what I've seen, so the Brexit Party will mop up.

Single issue election, single issue party. Only the angriest europhobic voters will turn up and vote for the party that offers nothing but more anger. Your average voter is just fed up of the whole thing. Add into that the remain vote being far too split for any one party to mount a proper challenge (it SHOULD have been Labour). UKIP won in 2014, so its hardly a surprise.

Some interesting subplots could be Lib Dems finishing ahead of Labour and Greens ahead of Conservatives as disillusioned remainers try and hang their political hats, both of these mini battles will be close.

It's only going to get worse from here, the hard brexiteers in the Tory party now have the honour of choosing our next PM (even tho most of them don't even vote Tory anymore) because that's how our wonderfully archaic democracy works. Boris might win back a few of the Faragistas but will probably lose as much support out the other end, which may strengthen the Lib Dem climb even further.

If there was a general election however, this would simply hand power to Labour, as the Brexit Party vote share, while projected to be strong, is quite evenly spread out and therefore would struggle in First Past the Post. If that were to be the case, their supporters might finally be able to claim the system is undemocratic and actually have a point. Its been messing over the Greens and Lib Dems for years.

EDIT: Turnout data beginning to be released in some more detail now. While overall it does look disappointingly low considering the importance of the elections, there's an interesting trend. The more remain supporting the area was in 2016, the greater the increase in turnout.
Last edited by dursleydog on Fri May 24, 2019 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Brexit

Postby paulK » Fri May 24, 2019 2:17 pm

dursleydog wrote:Turnout looked to be appallingly low from what I've seen, so the Brexit Party will mop up.

Single issue election, single issue party. Only the angriest europhobic voters will turn up and vote for the party that offers nothing but more anger. Your average voter is just fed up of the whole thing.


What I don't get is that whilst remainers will cause so much vocal opposition to Brexit, when it comes to voting in those they think will best represent us in the EU they can't be bothered :?

Or is it just that they can't see beyond the end of their noses :roll:
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