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Re: Brexit

Postby Tomiswalking » Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:13 am

This country has never been wealthier, Its a shame it's not shared more equally.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Eco-Exile » Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:39 am

Tomiswalking wrote:This country has never been wealthier, Its a shame it's not shared more equally.


I believe to be so true. Which means it is even more sad that those leading the No Deal cries like Johnson, his cabinet and Farage are those who wish to remove the welfare system and employment rights and scrap the ECHR and equality laws.

On a related note here is some evidence and data I would like to share in response to those who laugh off Johnson’s racism or dismiss the fears of minorities: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 88476.html

“Islamophobic incidents rose 375% after Boris Johnson compared Muslim women to ‘letterboxes’, figures show. Perpetrators abusing Muslim women in the street ‘directly referenced’ MP’s comments, report finds”
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Re: Brexit

Postby Kentstripe » Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:08 am

BJ's comments were clearly out of line, but to blame the rise of Islamophopia on him is wrong and needs to be put in context. It has far wider reaching reasons behind it, has been a major issue for quite a while and would be present with or without him being PM.

The EDL/ANTIFA have been a growing force across Europe for a long time, and fairly recent events like the Manchester bombing/Paris attacks as well as the Rotherham grooming gang scandal have only exacerbated the bad feeling. The global war on terror is seen by many on both sides as a war on Islam, and will continue to be viewed that way with or without the likes of Johnson's input.

I absolutely think he should apologise for them, however.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Eco-Exile » Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:48 am

Kentstripe wrote:BJ's comments were clearly out of line, but to blame the rise of Islamophopia on him is wrong and needs to be put in context. It has far wider reaching reasons behind it, has been a major issue for quite a while and would be present with or without him being PM.

I did say previously that when such things are said by political leaders people like me have to brace ourselves for a surge in abuse where racists can use the words of political leaders as encouragement. I was told by white men I was overreacting. Now I share evidence and I am told the evidence is wrong. Why are people so quick to dismiss and belittle those who face discrimination every day and trying to make excuses for racists?

The EDL/ANTIFA have been a growing force across Europe for a long time, and fairly recent events like the Manchester bombing/Paris attacks as well as the Rotherham grooming gang scandal have only exacerbated the bad feeling. The global war on terror is seen by many on both sides as a war on Islam, and will continue to be viewed that way with or without the likes of Johnson's input.

I absolutely think he should apologise for them, however.


Yes it did exist and was rising but when politicians say things it gives it more legitimacy. The link I shared clearly shows that not only did attacks increase after his comments but his comments were actually quoted in attacks. Being able to quote the Prime Minister whilst committing hate crime must empower racists quite considerably. Rather than being on the extreme fringe, they feel they have the support of the Prime Minister.

Can I ask why you group Antifa with the EDL and racists? Antifa exist purely to combat and challenge fascists like the EDL. If I am in a town and the EDL are out hunting Muslims and Jews I will be glad if the Antifa are there to stand up and protect me and other minorities from fascists.

A colleague at work (white British) had her car window smashed and a Swastika carved into the back by the number plate. She had a really old EU sticker thing on from when she worked and lived in Finland and Sweden for a few years long before the referendum. Nothing stolen from the car and may just be a random attack but hers was the only vehicle targeted. That just feels like every day modern Britain nowadays.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:50 am

Kentstripe wrote:BJ's comments were clearly out of line, but to blame the rise of Islamophopia on him is wrong and needs to be put in context. It has far wider reaching reasons behind it, has been a major issue for quite a while and would be present with or without him being PM.

The EDL/ANTIFA have been a growing force across Europe for a long time, and fairly recent events like the Manchester bombing/Paris attacks as well as the Rotherham grooming gang scandal have only exacerbated the bad feeling. The global war on terror is seen by many on both sides as a war on Islam, and will continue to be viewed that way with or without the likes of Johnson's input.

I absolutely think he should apologise for them, however.


As always there’s never a sole cause, but the difference in seeing extremist groups such as the EDL whipping up hatred and a frontline politician of a mainstream party doing it is stark. I think as a whole the Conservative party in recent years has acted to normalise Islamophobia, with Johnson probably being the most vocal individual.

Of course it has to be mentioned that Labour have an issue with anti semitism within a wing of party, but there is one crucial difference here. I don’t see labour using antisemitism as an electoral strategy, whereas Johnson calculated those comments would play well with his supporters in the party leadership election and he was right...

As for the war on terror being seen as a war on Islam, I’m afraid I have to respectfully disagree. It seems in western media that the attacker being Muslim (or lets be honest, just Middle Eastern In ethnicity in some cases) as part of the definition of terror attack. The worst example is the states, there’s no difference in my mind of a extremist Muslim attacking a bunch of people or an extremist Christian shooting up an abortion clinic. They’re both terrorists, but the language the incidents are reported in are completely different.

There are terrible, violent, and extreme people in the world and there probably always will be. But we have to look at how these people start. In the case of the Manchester Bombing for example, the attacker was born and bred in the UK. He suffered racist abuse on and off throughout much of his life and was made to feel like an intruder in his own country, which of course leaves him wide open to being radicalised. I can only see comments like Johnson’s making more alienated and at risk people falling into a very dark place, either directly or indirectly through the normalisation of the message they carry.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Kentstripe » Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:08 am

dursleydog wrote:As for the war on terror being seen as a war on Islam, I’m afraid I have to respectfully disagree. It seems in western media that the attacker being Muslim (or lets be honest, just Middle Eastern In ethnicity in some cases) as part of the definition of terror attack. The worst example is the states, there’s no difference in my mind of a extremist Muslim attacking a bunch of people or an extremist Christian shooting up an abortion clinic. They’re both terrorists, but the language the incidents are reported in are completely different.


Completely agree that a terrorist is a terrorist, regardless of religion, however it is absolutely clear that the general public, popular media etc almost always connect the war on terror/terrorists with radical islamists. Look at how they are portrayed in many recent films etc.

That is obviously not right, however if you asked the majority of people to describe a stereotypical terrorist they would describe a devout muslims appearance. There is a lot of deep rooted bad feeling/distrust in certain communities and is a huge global problem which cannot be attributed to a Telegraph column by Boris Johnson a few years ago.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:48 am

Kentstripe wrote:
dursleydog wrote:As for the war on terror being seen as a war on Islam, I’m afraid I have to respectfully disagree. It seems in western media that the attacker being Muslim (or lets be honest, just Middle Eastern In ethnicity in some cases) as part of the definition of terror attack. The worst example is the states, there’s no difference in my mind of a extremist Muslim attacking a bunch of people or an extremist Christian shooting up an abortion clinic. They’re both terrorists, but the language the incidents are reported in are completely different.


Completely agree that a terrorist is a terrorist, regardless of religion, however it is absolutely clear that the general public, popular media etc almost always connect the war on terror/terrorists with radical islamists. Look at how they are portrayed in many recent films etc.

That is obviously not right, however if you asked the majority of people to describe a stereotypical terrorist they would describe a devout muslims appearance. There is a lot of deep rooted bad feeling/distrust in certain communities and is a huge global problem which cannot be attributed to a Telegraph column by Boris Johnson a few years ago.


I would still say don’t underestimate the effect of the PM of this country holding those kind of views would have on reinforcing that bad feeling and distrust. No ones claiming Johnson single handedly caused these problems with one article, they’re claiming he is helping to normalise those views in this country and that the publication of that article correlated with a sharp spike in the number of islamophobic incidents as those holding such views felt emboldened after seeing those views aired in the mainstream media by a frontline politician
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Re: Brexit

Postby Eco-Exile » Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:02 am

Kentstripe wrote:
dursleydog wrote:As for the war on terror being seen as a war on Islam, I’m afraid I have to respectfully disagree. It seems in western media that the attacker being Muslim (or lets be honest, just Middle Eastern In ethnicity in some cases) as part of the definition of terror attack. The worst example is the states, there’s no difference in my mind of a extremist Muslim attacking a bunch of people or an extremist Christian shooting up an abortion clinic. They’re both terrorists, but the language the incidents are reported in are completely different.


Completely agree that a terrorist is a terrorist, regardless of religion, however it is absolutely clear that the general public, popular media etc almost always connect the war on terror/terrorists with radical islamists. Look at how they are portrayed in many recent films etc.

That is obviously not right, however if you asked the majority of people to describe a stereotypical terrorist they would describe a devout muslims appearance. There is a lot of deep rooted bad feeling/distrust in certain communities and is a huge global problem which cannot be attributed to a Telegraph column by Boris Johnson a few years ago.


No one is attributing the problem to Boris Johnson, but please consider these scenarios....

There are 100 people each in two identical countries who are Islamophobic and who commit hate crimes.

In country 1. The Prime Minister condemns Islamophobia and says there is no place for discrimination in society of any kind and the national newspapers promote anti-racist messaging.

In country 2. The Prime Minister uses Islamophic language, defends it, and the best selling newspapers use Islamophobic headlines.

In which of the two countries do you think the 100 Islamophobes will feel like they are more valid and acceptable and empowered to be more public with their hatred, and in which will they feel like they are unwelcome?

Obviously you cannot stop people being racist, but political leaders can create an environment where it is clear racism is unwelcome and wrong or they can use language which legitimises it.

Surely you can see that whilst Johnson has not caused a historic global problem his words and actions will only make it worse in the U.K.? That is basic comprehension and barely nuanced at all - you must be able to grasp the idea surely?
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Re: Brexit

Postby TreeHugger » Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:50 pm

Kentstripe wrote:BJ's comments were clearly out of line, but to blame the rise of Islamophopia on him is wrong and needs to be put in context. It has far wider reaching reasons behind it, has been a major issue for quite a while and would be present with or without him being PM.


Out of line?

That’s a bit weak isn’t it? Let’s not p*ssyfoot around here. His comments were extremely racist and should be condemned in the strongest possible terms. There’s no way he should be endorsed as Prime Minister of this country by anyone. I suspect that had certain media not been emboldened by the Brexit referendum result, and the prejudiced masses not been allowed to crawl out into mainstream society, there would have been calls for him to be removed from his position long before reaching the top job.

Of course he’s not solely to blame for the rise of Islamophobia, but he shouldn’t be excused his contribution and should be setting the opposite example. Even some of those who post in this forum have been encouraged by his hatred and now see his racist views as acceptable.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Foggy » Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:57 pm

I like a documentary or two, particularly if they involve flies on the wall or things like emergency services and hospitals. I watched an episode of call the cops earlier this week and have to describe the content as being among the most shocking I have ever seen on tv, a glimpse of modern Britain, and it relates directly to this thread. It is still available on 4Od if you haven't seen it already, or click on the following link:

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/cal ... /69164-003

If you do watch it be warned that it contains language that many will find offensive, make sure that there are no young ears or those offended by obscenity within earshot. The footage of the incident, which contains a racially motivated verbal assault, begins at around 36 minutes and this is followed by the reaction from one of the officers involved. Having spoken with friends and family this is the sort of thing that they have been on the receiving end of in the last three years and in some cases has made them wonder whether they have a future in this country. To say that this causes me deep sadness doesn't even start to address the issue, a genie has been allowed to leave the bottle and nobody seems to know where the cork is.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Eco-Exile » Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:24 am

TreeHugger wrote:
Kentstripe wrote:BJ's comments were clearly out of line, but to blame the rise of Islamophopia on him is wrong and needs to be put in context. It has far wider reaching reasons behind it, has been a major issue for quite a while and would be present with or without him being PM.


Out of line?

That’s a bit weak isn’t it? Let’s not p*ssyfoot around here. His comments were extremely racist and should be condemned in the strongest possible terms. There’s no way he should be endorsed as Prime Minister of this country by anyone. I suspect that had certain media not been emboldened by the Brexit referendum result, and the prejudiced masses not been allowed to crawl out into mainstream society, there would have been calls for him to be removed from his position long before reaching the top job.

Of course he’s not solely to blame for the rise of Islamophobia, but he shouldn’t be excused his contribution and should be setting the opposite example. Even some of those who post in this forum have been encouraged by his hatred and now see his racist views as acceptable.


Kentstripe’s resistance to calling Boris Johnson racist is odd.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Kentstripe » Sun Sep 08, 2019 12:28 pm

I don't see the point in name calling. Those comments were unacceptable, and he should have apologised. I don't know if Johnson is racist, he has at least appointed a pretty diverse cabinet.

Anyway imo this has been dragged up to score cheap political points, however the danger is the more people try and paint Johnson as being anti-pc, anti-establishment, controversial or even racist the more likely he is to hoover up a lot of votes from the disaffected millions in this country who would otherwise have voted for The Brexit Party. A British Trump would get a lot of votes in the current climate, The focus should be on policies, competence and ability to lead, not some sort of the people vs parliament scenario.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Eco-Exile » Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:42 pm

Kentstripe wrote:I don't see the point in name calling. Those comments were unacceptable, and he should have apologised. I don't know if Johnson is racist, he has at least appointed a pretty diverse cabinet.

Anyway imo this has been dragged up to score cheap political points, however the danger is the more people try and paint Johnson as being anti-pc, anti-establishment, controversial or even racist the more likely he is to hoover up a lot of votes from the disaffected millions in this country who would otherwise have voted for The Brexit Party. A British Trump would get a lot of votes in the current climate, The focus should be on policies, competence and ability to lead, not some sort of the people vs parliament scenario.


A bit odd to describe calling out racism for what it is as ‘name calling’. Do you agree that Tommy Robinson is racist, or do you think that would be name calling as well?
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Re: Brexit

Postby Kentstripe » Sun Sep 08, 2019 4:12 pm

Definitely Islamophobic and given some of the stuff he's done/actively encouraged I would say he's a racist yeah.

Seems a pretty nasty individual in general tbh.
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Re: Brexit

Postby The Old TomCat » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:56 am

Parliament is now not sitting for five weeks and has inflicted upon Boris a 6th defeat, all Brexit related.
The UK could remain in the EU until after the GE, possibly in November. On the surface it is almost a resigning matter for Boris, who has categorically stated on dozens of occasions that the UK will leave on the 31st October.
But as they say in opera it’s not over ‘until the fat lady sings’.
Boris will almost certainly test the veracity of the ‘surrender’ legislation that Remainers are disingenuously claiming is illegal, that he would be breaking the law and could go to prison.
All tosh.
But Boris does have a dilemma in trying extricate himself from his own lines in the sand.
He could resign as PM and force Jeremy Corbyn to present the UK Government’s letter to the EU requesting an extension.
Boris will not be allowed to add an addendum to that letter but could make it clear to the Europeans that UK will leave the EU days after the GE which the Tories are on course to win.
The Europeans might then think it best time to end matters on Oct 31. And of course the French are hinting at denying the UK an extension beyond 31st Oct, which would automatically mean that UK leaves the EU.

The Tories to win GE2019!?
Assuming UK are still in the EU at time of GE, Labour will be in the middle of a pincer movement between the Tories [Brexit] and the LibDems [Remain].
Labour will lose enough seats in England to give the Tories a working majority, even though they will do well in Scotland. The LibDems will have a good GE but will not win enough seats to become main opposition party.
I don’t think the Brexit Party will seriously affect the outcome.

Standing back from Brexit it is noted that Labour gained 10% more support in last GE than from start of campaign. However history has shown that the political pendulum always swings back with a vengeance and Labour will probably lose that 10% plus more in next GE.
For example John Major won a GE against the odds but subsequently the Tories lost the next three GEs.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:03 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:Parliament is now not sitting for five weeks and has inflicted upon Boris a 6th defeat, all Brexit related.
The UK could remain in the EU until after the GE, possibly in November. On the surface it is almost a resigning matter for Boris, who has categorically stated on dozens of occasions that the UK will leave on the 31st October.
But as they say in opera it’s not over ‘until the fat lady sings’.
Boris will almost certainly test the veracity of the ‘surrender’ legislation that Remainers are disingenuously claiming is illegal, that he would be breaking the law and could go to prison.
All tosh.
But Boris does have a dilemma in trying extricate himself from his own lines in the sand.
He could resign as PM and force Jeremy Corbyn to present the UK Government’s letter to the EU requesting an extension.
Boris will not be allowed to add an addendum to that letter but could make it clear to the Europeans that UK will leave the EU days after the GE which the Tories are on course to win.
The Europeans might then think it best time to end matters on Oct 31. And of course the French are hinting at denying the UK an extension beyond 31st Oct, which would automatically mean that UK leaves the EU.

The Tories to win GE2019!?
Assuming UK are still in the EU at time of GE, Labour will be in the middle of a pincer movement between the Tories [Brexit] and the LibDems [Remain].
Labour will lose enough seats in England to give the Tories a working majority, even though they will do well in Scotland. The LibDems will have a good GE but will not win enough seats to become main opposition party.
I don’t think the Brexit Party will seriously affect the outcome.

Standing back from Brexit it is noted that Labour gained 10% more support in last GE than from start of campaign. However history has shown that the political pendulum always swings back with a vengeance and Labour will probably lose that 10% plus more in next GE.
For example John Major won a GE against the odds but subsequently the Tories lost the next three GEs.



Forgive me OTC but I’ll form my opinion on whether Johnson is considering breaking the law or not from actual law experts I think. Their opinion is that he could well be in some deep trouble if he refuses to follow the law that has been passed, why on earth should we as citizens follow the law if our government is above it after all? Given the inconsistencies in the claims for why this progrogation was necessary when compared with the leaked internal memos, it looks extremely likely (he absolutely 100% did) lie to our head of state to force the progrogation through.

You are correct that Labour are in a bit of a pincer movement regarding votes, while conveniently forgetting the Conservatives are in an even worse spot. Of course Farage’s rabid brexiteers (their manifesto now has 2 whole policies btw, brexit at all costs with zero plan for after, and scrapping an inheritance tax that benefits the richest in society only) are pulling some votes away. What so many have forgotten is between 30-40% of Conservative voters actually voted remain in 2016, many of whom look at what Johnson has done to the party and its lurch to the right in dispair.

If Labour can stay relatively strong enough to take advantage of the Tory/Brexit Party vote split in the North, the Conservative gains there may be fairly minimal. Meanwhile the tories will be absolutely clattered in the south by the Lib Dem’s, in house Westminster estimates have stated the tories feel they need to win around 35 Northern leave seats off labour just to break even overall.

Another important point is the announcement of an anti-DUP electoral pact in Northern Ireland, as the remain supporting parties in a remain supporting country seek to kick out the conservative’s crutch from underneath them. As for Scotland, both Labour and the Conservatives appear to be pretty unpopular, and the SNP should mop up almost every seat.

Given the intricate nature of our first past the post system, the uneven translation of overall vote % to seats, and the distribution of the fractured electorate, I think the most likely outcome is a hung parliament with it being very close between Labour and the Conservatives as to who is the largest party. However, only Labour will be able to form a government with the Lib Dem’s and/or the SNP, as the Brexit Party will make a splash in terms of total votes, but fail to win many seats.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Eco-Exile » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:29 pm

The Liberal Democrats will be in a very unenviable situation: they will most likely have to go into coalition with a racist Conservative government hellbent on removing all employment rights and environmental protection to create mass poverty and inequality, or an anti-Semitic communist talking about nationalisation of everything and forcing landlords to sell houses to tenants at below market rates.
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Re: Brexit

Postby dursleydog » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:23 pm

Eco-Exile wrote:The Liberal Democrats will be in a very unenviable situation: they will most likely have to go into coalition with a racist Conservative government hellbent on removing all employment rights and environmental protection to create mass poverty and inequality, or an anti-Semitic communist talking about nationalisation of everything and forcing landlords to sell houses to tenants at below market rates.


Fingers crossed, but labour seem to have finally got a handle on anti-semitism in the party at the moment. They also seem to have softened their stance and have been far more open to working with other parties.
This is likely despite Corbyn rather than because of him, but If the Lib Dem’s have the slightest bit of sense they’ll be willing to meet Labour in the middle. Labour and the SNP would be a far more natural fit, but I’m sceptical they’d manage the numbers without the Lib Dem’s.
Hell would freeze over before the Lib Dem’s work with this iteration of the Conservative Party in my opinion. They know the only way for them to get their 2nd referendum (or outright revoke, as they seek to be airing towards) is going to be working with Labour, not against them.
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Re: Brexit

Postby The Old TomCat » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:56 pm

dursleydog wrote:

Forgive me OTC but I’ll form my opinion on whether Johnson is considering breaking the law or not from actual law experts I think. Their opinion is that he could well be in some deep trouble if he refuses to follow the law that has been passed, why on earth should we as citizens follow the law if our government is above it after all? Given the inconsistencies in the claims for why this progrogation was necessary when compared with the leaked internal memos, it looks extremely likely (he absolutely 100% did) lie to our head of state to force the progrogation through.
[We agree. Boris has not broken the law and is unlikely to do so. I had already covered possibility that he could resign and allow Corbyn to send letter to the EU.
It's a funny old world but Boris might even accrure more votes when the public know that he perhaps misled a divided Parliament trying to make sure the result of the Referendum is upheld. I don't necessarily agree he did right but it seems to work: look to Trump in the US for an example]



You are correct that Labour are in a bit of a pincer movement regarding votes, while conveniently forgetting the Conservatives are in an even worse spot. Of course Farage’s rabid brexiteers (their manifesto now has 2 whole policies btw, brexit at all costs with zero plan for after, and scrapping an inheritance tax that benefits the richest in society only) are pulling some votes away. What so many have forgotten is between 30-40% of Conservative voters actually voted remain in 2016, many of whom look at what Johnson has done to the party and its lurch to the right in dispair.
[Already stated that I don't think the Brexit Party will seriously affect GE]

If Labour can stay relatively strong enough to take advantage of the Tory/Brexit Party vote split in the North, the Conservative gains there may be fairly minimal. Meanwhile the tories will be absolutely clattered in the south by the Lib Dem’s, in house Westminster estimates have stated the tories feel they need to win around 35 Northern leave seats off labour just to break even overall.
[Labour will take a hiding because of Corbyn, acknowledged as worst Labour leader since the 1930s. The Marxist Momentum movement will also seriously deter casual Labour supporters to vote for the party.]

Another important point is the announcement of an anti-DUP electoral pact in Northern Ireland, as the remain supporting parties in a remain supporting country seek to kick out the conservative’s crutch from underneath them. As for Scotland, both Labour and the Conservatives appear to be pretty unpopular, and the SNP should mop up almost every seat.
[Disagree. SNP are becoming less popular than in their prime when they mopped up practically all seats in Scotland]

Given the intricate nature of our first past the post system, the uneven translation of overall vote % to seats, and the distribution of the fractured electorate, I think the most likely outcome is a hung parliament with it being very close between Labour and the Conservatives as to who is the largest party. However, only Labour will be able to form a government with the Lib Dem’s and/or the SNP, as the Brexit Party will make a splash in terms of total votes, but fail to win many seats.


I offered a balance view of my thoughts of next GE and here I have an excellent track record in getting all right since the 1980s, [excluding John Major's unexpected win].
I disagree with your last paragraph, substance of which I have previously covered.
The Tories will make hay of fact that the opposition parties are disorganised: Lib Dems don't want out while Labour want, I think, another Referendum
BTW the LibDems have said they will not work with Corbyn and have had their fingers burnt as the smaller of two parties in Government. And the SNP don't like Labour.
But of course we will all have to wait outcome of next GE which I'm confident that Boris will win with an outright majority.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Too occasional fan » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:28 pm

https://twitter.com/OGMurphy1/status/11 ... 4817639430

"A source inside Number 10 tells me the PM & Gove have said if Yellowhammer documents are released into is the public domain “Brexit is over” in cabinet meeting."
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