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Re: Parliament

Postby The Old TomCat » Sun Oct 06, 2019 3:55 pm

Interesting newspaper headline that puts the Brexit debate into context.
Okay it's from The Mail, which I know many on this thread don't read but all the same the poll/headline cannot be dismissed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... eturn.html


Tories surge to 15-POINT lead over Jeremy Corbyn's Labour in the polls as Leavers voters return to the Tories to back Boris Johnson's Brexit plan
The Conservatives are on 38 per cent, up two per cent, after a surge in support
Six in ten Brexiteers now back Mr Johnson's Party, the most since 2017 election
Labour dropped one per cent to 23 per cent, but has picked up Remainers
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Re: Parliament

Postby dursleydog » Sun Oct 06, 2019 5:23 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:Interesting newspaper headline that puts the Brexit debate into context.
Okay it's from The Mail, which I know many on this thread don't read but all the same the poll/headline cannot be dismissed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... eturn.html


Tories surge to 15-POINT lead over Jeremy Corbyn's Labour in the polls as Leavers voters return to the Tories to back Boris Johnson's Brexit plan
The Conservatives are on 38 per cent, up two per cent, after a surge in support
Six in ten Brexiteers now back Mr Johnson's Party, the most since 2017 election
Labour dropped one per cent to 23 per cent, but has picked up Remainers


Given we’re going to have a fairly seismic political shift one way or another on the 31st, and any election will take place after that, I’m not sure how much to read into any GE polling done before that date.

At the moment, it shows brexiteers are happy with Johnson, and remainers are split all over the place. The big thing there is “at the moment”
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Re: Parliament

Postby dursleydog » Sun Oct 06, 2019 5:33 pm

paulK wrote:
paulK wrote:
dursleydog wrote:
paulK wrote:
dursleydog wrote:
Everyone’s pretty frustrated with parliament, but ensuring that the government acts within the law it’s an absolute bread and butter necessity for our democracy to function.

Remember Johnson and his mates in the ERG voted against Mays withdrawal agreement 3 times and blocked us leaving the EU every time. They’re no advocates for parliamentary compromise.

Think you might be taking some very valid frustrations but pinning blame in the wrong areas here.


I think you'll find Boris supported the final reading of the amendment bill. Don't know which mates, you are referring to but Boris did not try to block it, despite disagreeing with it.

For me, the question of working within the law is not paramount in my decision but implementing the referendum result is, however unpalatable it might be. For the avoidance of doubt, I am not condoning the breaking of the law.


Sorry, you can’t claim to not be condoning breaking the law when your previous sentence literally says “working within the law is not paramount”, it’s the kind of doublethink that has littered the brexit debate and has made it so hard to implement, at some point the brexiteers have to engage with reality. Implementing the result of a marginal, non-binding referendum that the evidence suggests the country’s changed its mind on by breaking the law is madness. Just propose a deal that is actually aimed at offering something for everyone, rather than just the brexiteers.



Just because I did not rank breaking the law as the top reason for my decision does not mean that I condone it, Dursleydog. Please don't try to twist my point, which Tomiswalking clearly understands.

As for offering something for everyone, I think that brexiteers have a far better grip on reality.


Directly quoting your words isn’t twisting them. You talked about the Supreme Court frustrating brexit (it didn’t) and then said “working within the law isn’t paramount”. The implication is you’d be willing to have a government that is above the law just to deliver brexit, which is an extremely dangerous route for our democracy to go down.

Please could you explain how the brexiteers are offering something for everyone? Johnson’s deal is a joke, far worse than Mays, will quite rightly be never accepted by the EU or Northern Ireland, and is either a reflection of a government dangerously incapable of doing the job it’s been tasked with or has deliberately designed it to fail, just so they can pretend to blame the EU and get people even angrier as an election strategy. So what on Earth are they offering to everyone here?


:roll: obviously you don't know the meaning of twisting words

I DID NOT say that the Government should not work within the law or that it is above it

I DID NOT claim the Supreme Court frustrated Brexit. I said that those bringing the action because they claimed the PM was trying to stymie the discussion on Brexit haven't actually brought anything forward or put anything on the table that would suggest their claim was valid. Plenty of abuse and other stuff, but Brexit?

I DID NOT say that the Brexiteers are offering something for everyone. My point is that to expect that offering something for everyone is out of touch with reality.[/quote]

Look mate this is going nowhere so I’m just gonna leave it. Got to say I find your logic of the situation warped to say the least, but we’re all in pretty messed up times at the moment with a lot of misinformation flying around.
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Re: Parliament

Postby Tomiswalking » Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:47 pm

Lots of experts predicted this would happen but they were dismissed as being part of 'project fear' as part of the vote leave campaign.
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Re: Parliament

Postby Too occasional fan » Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:27 am

The Old TomCat wrote:Interesting newspaper headline that puts the Brexit debate into context.
Okay it's from The Mail, which I know many on this thread don't read but all the same the poll/headline cannot be dismissed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... eturn.html


Tories surge to 15-POINT lead over Jeremy Corbyn's Labour in the polls as Leavers voters return to the Tories to back Boris Johnson's Brexit plan
The Conservatives are on 38 per cent, up two per cent, after a surge in support
Six in ten Brexiteers now back Mr Johnson's Party, the most since 2017 election
Labour dropped one per cent to 23 per cent, but has picked up Remainers



The key part of that article, if you want to take it as gospel, given the bent of the ownership, is the following:

It came as it was suggested the PM is prepared to spark a major constitutional crisis drawing the Queen into the heart of politics in order to get Brexit done by the end of the month.

The Prime Minister is said to be prepared to 'squat' in Downing Street and dare the monarch to fire him if MPs topple his administration in a confidence vote and seek to delay the UK's exit from the EU.


This is where a mere 2% over 50% gets the country. I did read somewhere that Boris wishes to unite the country; he seems to be a bit lost as to how to do that.
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Re: Parliament

Postby paulK » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:13 am

dursleydog wrote:
paulK wrote:
:roll: obviously you don't know the meaning of twisting words

I DID NOT say that the Government should not work within the law or that it is above it

I DID NOT claim the Supreme Court frustrated Brexit. I said that those bringing the action because they claimed the PM was trying to stymie the discussion on Brexit haven't actually brought anything forward or put anything on the table that would suggest their claim was valid. Plenty of abuse and other stuff, but Brexit?

I DID NOT say that the Brexiteers are offering something for everyone. My point is that to expect that offering something for everyone is out of touch with reality.


Look mate this is going nowhere so I’m just gonna leave it. Got to say I find your logic of the situation warped to say the least, but we’re all in pretty messed up times at the moment with a lot of misinformation flying around.


Appreciated. You are right his is going nowhere DD, but I do find your response a little on the sanctimonious side.

How do you expect to understand my "logic" if you claim I am saying things I haven't. I think the problem is that you are trying to discount my reasoning by applying your logic and discounting the fact that people decision making can be complex and people arrive at different decisions for different reasons.

As for suggesting I may be messed up because of the misinformation that is flying around :roll:

I am probably around three times your age and have been around long enough to work out that what politicians say are aspirations and/or beleifs and/or intentions which won't always come to fruition because of other reasons. Invariably because of things they claim others, such as the previous government, have done and/or they didn't realise or because others have different opinions and will try to stop them or won't play ball.

Personally, I can't be fussed with politics and will make my decisions for my own reasons having come to a conclusion on what is happening all around me.
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Re: Parliament

Postby paulK » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:20 am

Too occasional fan wrote:
The Old TomCat wrote:Interesting newspaper headline that puts the Brexit debate into context.
Okay it's from The Mail, which I know many on this thread don't read but all the same the poll/headline cannot be dismissed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... eturn.html


Tories surge to 15-POINT lead over Jeremy Corbyn's Labour in the polls as Leavers voters return to the Tories to back Boris Johnson's Brexit plan
The Conservatives are on 38 per cent, up two per cent, after a surge in support
Six in ten Brexiteers now back Mr Johnson's Party, the most since 2017 election
Labour dropped one per cent to 23 per cent, but has picked up Remainers



The key part of that article, if you want to take it as gospel, given the bent of the ownership, is the following:

It came as it was suggested the PM is prepared to spark a major constitutional crisis drawing the Queen into the heart of politics in order to get Brexit done by the end of the month.

The Prime Minister is said to be prepared to 'squat' in Downing Street and dare the monarch to fire him if MPs topple his administration in a confidence vote and seek to delay the UK's exit from the EU.


This is where a mere 2% over 50% gets the country. I did read somewhere that Boris wishes to unite the country; he seems to be a bit lost as to how to do that.


Thank you ToC. For me, the key part of your posting is that Project Fear is still alive and well as in it is suggested.

As for commenting on Boris being a bit lost on how to unite the country. Isn't everybody?

By the way - do you not believe opinion polls then?
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Re: Parliament

Postby Too occasional fan » Mon Oct 07, 2019 10:59 am

er, Boris is SAYING he wasn't to unite the country, but DOING the opposite.

Opinion Polls are what they say they are - Opinion Polls.
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Re: Parliament

Postby Eco-Exile » Mon Oct 07, 2019 12:43 pm

paulK wrote:
Too occasional fan wrote:
The Old TomCat wrote:Interesting newspaper headline that puts the Brexit debate into context.
Okay it's from The Mail, which I know many on this thread don't read but all the same the poll/headline cannot be dismissed.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... eturn.html


Tories surge to 15-POINT lead over Jeremy Corbyn's Labour in the polls as Leavers voters return to the Tories to back Boris Johnson's Brexit plan
The Conservatives are on 38 per cent, up two per cent, after a surge in support
Six in ten Brexiteers now back Mr Johnson's Party, the most since 2017 election
Labour dropped one per cent to 23 per cent, but has picked up Remainers



The key part of that article, if you want to take it as gospel, given the bent of the ownership, is the following:

It came as it was suggested the PM is prepared to spark a major constitutional crisis drawing the Queen into the heart of politics in order to get Brexit done by the end of the month.

The Prime Minister is said to be prepared to 'squat' in Downing Street and dare the monarch to fire him if MPs topple his administration in a confidence vote and seek to delay the UK's exit from the EU.


This is where a mere 2% over 50% gets the country. I did read somewhere that Boris wishes to unite the country; he seems to be a bit lost as to how to do that.


Thank you ToC. For me, the key part of your posting is that Project Fear is still alive and well as in it is suggested.

As for commenting on Boris being a bit lost on how to unite the country. Isn't everybody?

By the way - do you not believe opinion polls then?


Some opinion polls: http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/
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Re: Parliament

Postby cookiemonster » Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:28 pm

'Project Fear' is now just a slogan employed by populists to defend themselves when presented with analysis and evidence about the risks of their own proposals.
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Re: Parliament

Postby twoguns » Mon Oct 07, 2019 1:35 pm

https://news.sky.com/story/campaigners- ... s-11829971

Dale's court action dismissed.

Shame they couldn't get his name right, poor journalism.
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Re: Parliament

Postby paulK » Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:12 pm

cookiemonster wrote:'Project Fear' is now just a slogan employed by populists to defend themselves when presented with analysis and evidence about the risks of their own proposals.


Apologies. Wrong use. I am neither defencing myself nor am I attempting to provide any or analysis of risks.

Scaremongering then.
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Re: Parliament

Postby dursleydog » Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:38 pm

twoguns wrote:https://news.sky.com/story/campaigners-bid-to-get-courts-to-order-no-deal-brexit-delay-fails-11829971

Dale's court action dismissed.

Shame they couldn't get his name right, poor journalism.


Don’t think dale will be too disappointed with that result. The reason the courts ruled they didn’t have to intervene like the case asked was because Johnson gave a sworn statement that he would follow the act to the letter, meaning he’s in a whole heap of legal trouble if he now doesn’t.

The end result either way is the same, Johnson has to follow the law and ask for the extension.
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Re: Parliament

Postby paulK » Mon Oct 07, 2019 4:01 pm

Too occasional fan wrote:er, Boris is SAYING he wasn't to unite the country, but DOING the opposite.

Opinion Polls are what they say they are - Opinion Polls.


Re Boris. Yeah, not so easy is it?

Re opinion polls. Yes exactly. An opinion based on a selected number of people at one particular time on particular questions. So all this stuff about opinion polls providing "evidence" that peoples minds have changed and we should have another referendum and/or remain are a bit off the mark.

From memory, the referendum was the third time I've voted on being in Europe, as it were. The first time to join the Common Market, the second when Labour got in with a manifesto saying they would take us out of the EC, as it was then.

Of course that didn't happen as the Labour party couldn't agree between themselves and also despite the Leave campaigning of my local Labour MP, Hilary Benn's father. Though the difference between then and now is that the Labour Party pledged to abide by the referendum and did (what a difference in morals between father and son)

The first two referendums/votes were more decisive than the last. Probably not unsurprising. Referendums in other countries tend to be decisive only when the country is likely to benefit financially, rather than being a net contributor.

As it stands, opinion is so divided that it is probably those that run the best campaign will come out on top. And unless a campaign is run, opinion polls are not going to be too indicative IMO as they cannot predict those with a tendency to change their minds and/or are not really decided yet.

Incidentally, each time I voted I was on the "losing" side :(
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Re: Parliament

Postby paulK » Mon Oct 07, 2019 4:07 pm

Eco-Exile wrote:
Some opinion polls: http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/


The interesting thing I find about these polls is the percentage of don't knows/undecided. Some of them look awfully low. In fact, too low to believe :?:
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Re: Parliament

Postby paulK » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:50 am

twoguns wrote:https://news.sky.com/story/campaigners-bid-to-get-courts-to-order-no-deal-brexit-delay-fails-11829971

Dale's court action dismissed.

Shame they couldn't get his name right, poor journalism.


Shame they couldn't get their case right either. Judge had no problem blowing holes through most of it.

On the issue he did adjudicate on, what I found interesting was the way in which he distinguished between all the politicking and reliance on stuff that people leak, as opposed to the Government's publicly stated stance that they will abide by the law.

Interesting times. I wonder how it's going to pan out.
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Re: Parliament

Postby cookiemonster » Tue Oct 08, 2019 7:25 am

paulK wrote:
twoguns wrote:https://news.sky.com/story/campaigners-bid-to-get-courts-to-order-no-deal-brexit-delay-fails-11829971

Dale's court action dismissed.

Shame they couldn't get his name right, poor journalism.


Shame they couldn't get their case right either. Judge had no problem blowing holes through most of it.

On the issue he did adjudicate on, what I found interesting was the way in which he distinguished between all the politicking and reliance on stuff that people leak, as opposed to the Government's publicly stated stance that they will abide by the law.

Interesting times. I wonder how it's going to pan out.


Let's see if the government abides by the law. I'm not so confident.
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Re: Parliament

Postby paulK » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:27 pm

So, it looks like a deal won't happen. Things are really hotting up!

Of course, despite any rhetoric, the EU don't want us to leave. We are the second biggest contributor to their budget and it would leave a big hole in the budget they are currently preparing. They have every incentive not to do a deal.

They seem to be banking on the fact that MP's will refuse to agree to a no-deal despite the risk of MP's suddenly realising that there is no solution the EU will agree to and protect the Belfast Agreement. A small risk I agree, as it relies on realisation and other parties either don't want to leave or seem to be under the illusion that they will be able to negotiate with the EU and get a "better deal".

The EU also seem confident enough that now it is Parliament that is in control and not the PM, there are enough MP's who won't abide by the referendum result to stymie things from our end.

All well and good those who now realise that the EU isn't going to budge have been wishing that they had accepted the previously negotiated deal, but all they seem to have done is shown the EU they are in control of our situation at the moment, not us.

The EU says it needs to protect its members and specifically cites Ireland. Seems to me that the only way to get the EU to take notice of the Belfast agreement is to go down the no-deal route and leave the whole of the island, north and south, to sort it out.

In many ways, Boris has already gone a long way towards that by making suggestions and giving control to Northern Ireland in making decisions, as per the intention of the Belfast Agreement. Surely it is time now for the EU to be proactive?

Oh, I forgot. They don't really want us to leave and are relying on our Parliament being a mess. And, of course, there are the other leavers who are trying to dictate the proceedings and take away any control we might have in negotiations.
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Re: Parliament

Postby paulK » Tue Oct 08, 2019 1:45 pm

dursleydog wrote:
twoguns wrote:https://news.sky.com/story/campaigners-bid-to-get-courts-to-order-no-deal-brexit-delay-fails-11829971

Dale's court action dismissed.

Shame they couldn't get his name right, poor journalism.


Don’t think dale will be too disappointed with that result. The reason the courts ruled they didn’t have to intervene like the case asked was because Johnson gave a sworn statement that he would follow the act to the letter, meaning he’s in a whole heap of legal trouble if he now doesn’t.

The end result either way is the same, Johnson has to follow the law and ask for the extension.


Interesting perspectives. Dale claims they won, whilst one of his co-applicants said they lost and they are going for an appeal.

As for whether Johnson had to follow the law wasn't that always the case, sworn statement or not? If he doesn't, he doesn't, but this case hasn't made one iota of difference to that as far as I can see. In much the same way that overturning the prorogue made no difference to Parliament discussing and/or progressing Brexit.

Pointless exercise :?:
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Re: Parliament

Postby dursleydog » Tue Oct 08, 2019 2:17 pm

Pretty obvious Johnson’s proposal was going to be rejected, it was awful to the point of thinking it was designed to be rejected.

-Set up trade borders at both the Irish border and down the Irish Sea, so breaks the good Friday agreement.
-The veto given to Northern Ireland o their trade arrangements every 4 years would be an inflammatory decision for republicans and unionists.
-Relying on customs checks away from the border, effectively treating a land border as a sea border, would’ve led to a huge increase in illegal smuggling, especially if trade tariffs were imposed.
-Any physical customs checks put in place anywhere in Ireland, whether they’re by the border or not, would be a potential flashpoint for violence.
-Doing customs checks in factories is reliant on companies, both large and small, being completely open and transparent and law-abiding at all times at their own expense. VW emissions scandal anyone?
-Trying to keep Northern Ireland in the single market for goods without adhering to the other 3 freedoms is something the EU was never going to agree to. It completely shatters what the single market is about.

Why on Earth should the EU, and especially Ireland, be expected to make such sacrifices and take such risks just to dig us out of our entirely self-inflicted hole. Just imagine if our and Ireland’s roles were reversed here, we’d be utterly livid.
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