CoronaVirus

This board is a temporary one for topics and posts to to with the Coronavirus pandemic. Please put all relevant material in here, rather than the other boards.

Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Tue May 12, 2020 6:13 pm

madasahatter wrote:Thank you for recognising that Johnson has done a poor job so far.

In power for less than six months.

Nationalised the Railways
Around 9m people on paid (80%) holiday (furlough) for up to a possible 4 months.
Written of 13.8 billion of NHS debt
Given the NHS 'whatever it takes'.
Increased the Barnett formula payments.
Gave green light for 15.2 billion HS2 investment.
Left the EU

I don't think even the spendthrift Gordon Brown could butcher as much money as the current administration has. A splurge that your great great grandchildren will still be paying of. Probably one of the most Left Wing Governments this country has ever seen and it still ain't enough for some of you - priceless.


Actually you’ll probably find the the vast majority of fair-minded people would say the economic response to this crisis has been largely quite good, with some notable exceptions (self-employed especially have been completely left behind).
The criticism is of the public health policy, of the vacuum of leadership, of the confusion of communication. I don’t think they deserve a pat on the back for 10s of thousands of avoidable deaths just because they at least decided to not sit back and watch 20m get made redundant in a month. Let’s all have a little nuance.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Greeners » Tue May 12, 2020 10:46 pm

Hi
Presumably someone who lives in Chepstow and works in Tutshill at a job which is permissible at the moment, won't be able to go back home if he/she decides to cross the border to go to work.

Aust to Beachley both in England would be 67 mls apart if you aren't allowed to enter Wales and only 7.4mls if you can.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby paulK » Wed May 13, 2020 10:28 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:Anybody worked out what the new advice is yet? Every time I think I've got my head around the specifics of it another government minister, usually Raab, pops up on the news and contradicts it...

I think it all boils down to "Use your common sense".


A good point - but there isn't a lot of that around - especially if you are in the media and/or anti-BJ
My mileage; yours may vary, of course.....
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby paulK » Wed May 13, 2020 10:39 pm

madasahatter wrote:Thank you for recognising that Johnson has done a poor job so far.

In power for less than six months.

Nationalised the Railways
Around 9m people on paid (80%) holiday (furlough) for up to a possible 4 months.
Written of 13.8 billion of NHS debt
Given the NHS 'whatever it takes'.
Increased the Barnett formula payments.
Gave green light for 15.2 billion HS2 investment.
Left the EU

I don't think even the spendthrift Gordon Brown could butcher as much money as the current administration has. A splurge that your great great grandchildren will still be paying of. Probably one of the most Left Wing Governments this country has ever seen and it still ain't enough for some of you - priceless.


Just thank your lucky stars Corbyn didn't get in. He's been saying Johnson isn't spending enough.
My mileage; yours may vary, of course.....
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby The Old TomCat » Thu May 14, 2020 8:01 am

From having talks with people I know it would seem that England has lifted the total lock-down rules at the end of the correct time period.

# A good friend of mine is a 20-year-old university student who left her accommodation in Oxford to live at home with her parents while at same time her boyfriend did same to live with his parents in Devon.
After so many weeks apart they were desperate to see each other and my friend was getting prepared to accept the £100 fine to drive to Devon to see him.
Fortunately they are now allowed to legally meet, which they intent to do. They have promised their parents that they will observe social distancing but I know that at that age me and my then girlfriend could not keep our hands off each other.
Human nature does not change and we will not know if they end up canoodling in the back of a car, but at least both have the comforting knowledge that they have been in a safe environment for more than a month and are almost 100% CV19 free.

# A middle aged friend of mine with health issues has remained safe in self isolation, even having food delivered to his door. He is engaged to a woman who lives on the South Coast. A few days ago she floated the rules to visit him at his home. But they did keep to social distancing rules.

Two good examples showing that a relaxation of lock-down had to be made. Guaranteed that the other three countries of the UK will follow suit in a very short while.
ps all the people I know, including those I've mentioned, are law abiding during normal times.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby michael » Thu May 14, 2020 10:18 am

thank you for sharing the lascivious needs of your friends

a refreshing change from the league tables of death statistics

please keep us updated on how your friends make out and whether their needs are fulfilled
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Too occasional fan » Thu May 14, 2020 10:48 am

michael wrote:thank you for sharing the lascivious needs of your friends

a refreshing change from the league tables of death statistics

please keep us updated on how your friends make out and whether their needs are fulfilled


Pitchfork earlier said that people love michael's posts.

Where's the 'Like' button when you need it :lol: :lol:
The gimlet of the forum.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby The Old TomCat » Thu May 14, 2020 9:25 pm

At long last some good news for those of us living near to TNL:
for past two days there has not been any deaths from CV19 in Gloucestershire.
Pray that it stays like that and country comes down to our level.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby paulK » Thu May 14, 2020 10:27 pm

dursleydog wrote:
madasahatter wrote:Thank you for recognising that Johnson has done a poor job so far.

In power for less than six months.

Nationalised the Railways
Around 9m people on paid (80%) holiday (furlough) for up to a possible 4 months.
Written of 13.8 billion of NHS debt
Given the NHS 'whatever it takes'.
Increased the Barnett formula payments.
Gave green light for 15.2 billion HS2 investment.
Left the EU

I don't think even the spendthrift Gordon Brown could butcher as much money as the current administration has. A splurge that your great great grandchildren will still be paying of. Probably one of the most Left Wing Governments this country has ever seen and it still ain't enough for some of you - priceless.


Actually you’ll probably find the the vast majority of fair-minded people would say the economic response to this crisis has been largely quite good, with some notable exceptions (self-employed especially have been completely left behind).


Really? My wife is more than happy with what's coming her way. But then, she doesn't work cash in hand ;)
My mileage; yours may vary, of course.....
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 15, 2020 11:46 am

paulK wrote:
dursleydog wrote:
madasahatter wrote:Thank you for recognising that Johnson has done a poor job so far.

In power for less than six months.

Nationalised the Railways
Around 9m people on paid (80%) holiday (furlough) for up to a possible 4 months.
Written of 13.8 billion of NHS debt
Given the NHS 'whatever it takes'.
Increased the Barnett formula payments.
Gave green light for 15.2 billion HS2 investment.
Left the EU

I don't think even the spendthrift Gordon Brown could butcher as much money as the current administration has. A splurge that your great great grandchildren will still be paying of. Probably one of the most Left Wing Governments this country has ever seen and it still ain't enough for some of you - priceless.


Actually you’ll probably find the the vast majority of fair-minded people would say the economic response to this crisis has been largely quite good, with some notable exceptions (self-employed especially have been completely left behind).


Really? My wife is more than happy with what's coming her way. But then, she doesn't work cash in hand ;)


The SEISS (Self-Employed Income Support Scheme) only went live 2 days ago, there's been zero help outside of Universal Credit (notoriously slow process to wade through ) to fall back back on since March. Fine enough if you have savings to dip into, but for many this a luxury they simply didn't have. I'm glad you fall into the former category where there haven't been issues, but plenty have struggled as a result of falling through the cracks. But like I say, the bulk of the economic response has been good. Sadly, this counts for little when the public health response has been so dire.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 15, 2020 12:00 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:From having talks with people I know it would seem that England has lifted the total lock-down rules at the end of the correct time period.

# A good friend of mine is a 20-year-old university student who left her accommodation in Oxford to live at home with her parents while at same time her boyfriend did same to live with his parents in Devon.
After so many weeks apart they were desperate to see each other and my friend was getting prepared to accept the £100 fine to drive to Devon to see him.
Fortunately they are now allowed to legally meet, which they intent to do. They have promised their parents that they will observe social distancing but I know that at that age me and my then girlfriend could not keep our hands off each other.
Human nature does not change and we will not know if they end up canoodling in the back of a car, but at least both have the comforting knowledge that they have been in a safe environment for more than a month and are almost 100% CV19 free.

# A middle aged friend of mine with health issues has remained safe in self isolation, even having food delivered to his door. He is engaged to a woman who lives on the South Coast. A few days ago she floated the rules to visit him at his home. But they did keep to social distancing rules.

Two good examples showing that a relaxation of lock-down had to be made. Guaranteed that the other three countries of the UK will follow suit in a very short while.
ps all the people I know, including those I've mentioned, are law abiding during normal times.


Sadly the measure of success will be in the data, not amusing anecdotes.

As I've previously mentioned, with our testing setup the way it is there's going to be quite a lag from a change in lockdown measures to changes in the R number being detected in a rise in the number of cases, probably somewhere around the 10-14 days mark. At the moment our daily new cases figures have slightly dropped to around 3,500/day and deaths have continued to gradually decline to around 400-450/day. It'll be the middle of next week that we start to see in the data if this easing has caused a 2nd wave of infections, or brought the R number to around 1 which would result in our death rate flatlining at around 350-400/day, much higher than what's happening in the rest of Europe.

Given what happened in Germany after easing restrictions (R rate climbed from 0.7-1.3 in a week, new cases climbing) from a far lower and safer baseline of approx 500 new cases/day and an estimated 16,000 active cases. We're taking the risk with 140,000 active cases in the community (ONS survey results released yesterday). If we climb to 1.3, and given our most accurate estimate of R rate was 0.75-1 before we eased restrictions that looks fairly likely, that 140,000 cases will turn into 236,600 cases in two generations of the virus (which it can do in the 2 weeks it will take for us to even pick up on the change), this would cause a 2nd peak that would inflate our daily deaths from 400/day to around 650/day again. It's a massive gamble.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby The Old TomCat » Fri May 15, 2020 1:50 pm

dursleydog wrote:Sadly the measure of success will be in the data, not amusing anecdotes.

As I've previously mentioned, with our testing setup the way it is there's going to be quite a lag from a change in lockdown measures to changes in the R number being detected in a rise in the number of cases, probably somewhere around the 10-14 days mark. At the moment our daily new cases figures have slightly dropped to around 3,500/day and deaths have continued to gradually decline to around 400-450/day. It'll be the middle of next week that we start to see in the data if this easing has caused a 2nd wave of infections, or brought the R number to around 1 which would result in our death rate flatlining at around 350-400/day, much higher than what's happening in the rest of Europe.

Given what happened in Germany after easing restrictions (R rate climbed from 0.7-1.3 in a week, new cases climbing) from a far lower and safer baseline of approx 500 new cases/day and an estimated 16,000 active cases. We're taking the risk with 140,000 active cases in the community (ONS survey results released yesterday). If we climb to 1.3, and given our most accurate estimate of R rate was 0.75-1 before we eased restrictions that looks fairly likely, that 140,000 cases will turn into 236,600 cases in two generations of the virus (which it can do in the 2 weeks it will take for us to even pick up on the change), this would cause a 2nd peak that would inflate our daily deaths from 400/day to around 650/day again. It's a massive gamble.


Unfortunately and sadly it is inevitable that the death toll will continue to increase worldwide until a vaccine or herd immunity.
The world cannot retain every member of the population indefinitely in isolation for economic, mental or natural human nature reasons.
As you rightly show, lifting the lock down has increased casualties in German and that will be replicated elsewhere but regrettably it is a price that society will be forced to pay. And I say that with a heavy heart.

One thought: the lock down has been in operation for over a month, which theoretically should have removed any threat of CV19 from the population but people are still catching this damned virus. Perhaps lifting the lock down will not be so cataclysmic if people are sensible and follow government instructions.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 15, 2020 2:30 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:Sadly the measure of success will be in the data, not amusing anecdotes.

As I've previously mentioned, with our testing setup the way it is there's going to be quite a lag from a change in lockdown measures to changes in the R number being detected in a rise in the number of cases, probably somewhere around the 10-14 days mark. At the moment our daily new cases figures have slightly dropped to around 3,500/day and deaths have continued to gradually decline to around 400-450/day. It'll be the middle of next week that we start to see in the data if this easing has caused a 2nd wave of infections, or brought the R number to around 1 which would result in our death rate flatlining at around 350-400/day, much higher than what's happening in the rest of Europe.

Given what happened in Germany after easing restrictions (R rate climbed from 0.7-1.3 in a week, new cases climbing) from a far lower and safer baseline of approx 500 new cases/day and an estimated 16,000 active cases. We're taking the risk with 140,000 active cases in the community (ONS survey results released yesterday). If we climb to 1.3, and given our most accurate estimate of R rate was 0.75-1 before we eased restrictions that looks fairly likely, that 140,000 cases will turn into 236,600 cases in two generations of the virus (which it can do in the 2 weeks it will take for us to even pick up on the change), this would cause a 2nd peak that would inflate our daily deaths from 400/day to around 650/day again. It's a massive gamble.


Unfortunately and sadly it is inevitable that the death toll will continue to increase worldwide until a vaccine or herd immunity.
The world cannot retain every member of the population indefinitely in isolation for economic, mental or natural human nature reasons.
As you rightly show, lifting the lock down has increased casualties in German and that will be replicated elsewhere but regrettably it is a price that society will be forced to pay. And I say that with a heavy heart.

One thought: the lock down has been in operation for over a month, which theoretically should have removed any threat of CV19 from the population but people are still catching this damned virus. Perhaps lifting the lock down will not be so cataclysmic if people are sensible and follow government instructions.


The scale of death in the UK was far from inevitable.

New Zealand have been able to partially open up without seeing a resurgence in the virus. Denmark have reopened schools and small businesses 2 weeks ago and saw 0 deaths today. Slovenia have eradicated the virus from the country altogether after a very early lockdown. South Korea saw a 2nd spike (couple of hundred cases) when they completely opened up everything including bars and nightclubs, but have been able to contain the virus and partially reopen the economy. Vietnam have seen 0 deaths TOTAL despite a land border with China and highly densely populated cities, and they're reopening. Our lockdown was so so much softer than that seen through most of Europe and in comparison to the successful east asian countries fighting this virus. Italy, France, and Spain are now gently easing theirs to the levels we never bared go beyond, which is why they managed to drive down their numbers of cases and deaths to far lower levels than we're seeing. Our lockdown was never going to wipe this virus out by now, it was too slow and too soft to even get close.

Reopening with 1000 active cases and track and trace in place is manageable (New Zealand, South Korea), reopening with 10,000 cases and track and trace in place is difficult (Germany), reopening with 100,000 active cases and NO track and trace in place is suicide. We've only hired 1,500 contact tracers out of the 18,000 we need, the app is littered with security problems because we used a centralised database system rather than the far more secure decentralised system used by most of Europe and requires a high% uptake. We're not even close to being ready to start opening up.

I've been saying from the start of this crisis the clear path to fighting it, as proven by the lessons learnt from (even at the time) South Korea and Taiwan's approaches v Italy's, is to hit it as hard as possible as early as possible and all but wipe out the virus from the country, then you can open up the internal economy and shut down borders. As an island nation with the luxury of time to react, we squandered our relative privileged ease of managing this. Hundreds of scientists were writing to the government pushing them to shut down earlier at the time, they were ignored. This isn't the benefit of hindsight, this is an utter lack of foresight. The economic approach goes hand in hand with this, you have to accept that worldwide there is going to be a sharp recession, its inevitable. What's important in the speed at which your economy bounces back, and that requires to hit the virus hard and all but wipe it out. The shorter this time period is, the less debt the government racks up, the less people get made redundant, the less businesses go under. So many people are unwilling to take short term economic harm that they'll inflict the kind of long term damage on the economy that my generation will be paying off for the rest of our working lives, all while causing tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths in the process, by attempting to balance the unbalanceable we've ended up with the worst of both worlds.

As for herd immunity, large scale antibody test studies in France and Spain have confirmed that only 5-6% of their populations have been infected with Covid so far, any hope of there being millions of asymptomatic cases pulling us far closer to herd immunity is gone. It's safe to assume that only around 5% of the UK population has immunity, and our excess mortality sits at 60,000 by the latest estimates. To reach the approximate 80% needed for any kind of herd immunity would require a death toll of 960,000. To turn around and accept that would be utterly inhuman. Not to mention this immunity may only be short term, we still don't know how this virus is going to behave year-on-year.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby The Old TomCat » Fri May 15, 2020 3:14 pm

[quote="dursleydog"][/quote]

UK has undoubtedly been badly hit by the virus, which errors of judgement may have contributed towards.
However the pandemic will be around for plenty of months if not years.
Only when it subsides can a realistic reflection be gained.
For instance UK uses different counting methods than others. We may find that the final tally will not be too dissimilar.

Perhaps the government was late in imposing a lock down [I think not] because they took all considerations into account including catching CV19. The mental and psychological welfare is just as important. For instance spousal abusive has doubled.
As governments around the world are finding out, it is easy to impose a lock down but maddening to try and lift it in an orderly manner.

What I'm trying to convey is that governments must be looking further afield than trying and failing to stop the spread of CV19. There will continue to be large numbers of causalities which everybody must unfortunately accept but getting out to earn a crust is just as important. Governments cannot allow their people to stave.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 15, 2020 3:25 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:


UK has undoubtedly been badly hit by the virus, which errors of judgement may have contributed towards.
However the pandemic will be around for plenty of months if not years.
Only when it subsides can a realistic reflection be gained.
For instance UK uses different counting methods than others. We may find that the final tally will not be too dissimilar.

Perhaps the government was late in imposing a lock down [I think not] because they took all considerations into account including catching CV19. The mental and psychological welfare is just as important. For instance spousal abusive has doubled.
As governments around the world are finding out, it is easy to impose a lock down but maddening to try and lift it in an orderly manner.

What I'm trying to convey is that governments must be looking further afield than trying and failing to stop the spread of CV19. There will continue to be large numbers of causalities which everybody must unfortunately accept but getting out to earn a crust is just as important. Governments cannot allow their people to stave.


On counting methods, most are broadly similar and comparisons can be made with caveats. Excess mortality is the best indicator and it's that data I've been trying to use, unfortunately this still indicates we have handled this incredibly poorly in comparison with practically everyone, US, (and Brazil and Russia upcoming) aside.

I agree with a lot of what you say regarding lockdown, it's obviously something no government wants to impose upon their population for all the economic and other health issues it causes. However, my point is that their thinking has been back to front on the matter from the start. Imposing a tough lockdown a week earlier at the start allows you to open up a month earlier than you might've done. In our situation, maintaining a tight lockdown now lets you open up far more safely in a month from now, as oppose to risking a 2nd wave and having to lock down for another 3 months just to get back to where you could've been with a bit more patience. The health response and economic response are not in opposition to each other, despite how our government have been treating the issue, as shown by the fact the most successful countries in dealing with this situation, both in terms of saving lives and reopening the economy, took the precise opposite approach and didn't accept large numbers of casualties under any circumstances.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby The Old TomCat » Fri May 15, 2020 3:41 pm

dursleydog wrote:[The health response and economic response are not in opposition to each other, despite how our government have been treating the issue, as shown by the fact the most successful countries in dealing with this situation, both in terms of saving lives and reopening the economy, took the precise opposite approach and didn't accept large numbers of casualties under any circumstances.


Far, far to early to make that statement.
Only when CV19 has abated can this governments actions be properly scrutinised.
They followed advice from the country's leading scientists. If anyone is to blame it is them.
But it may well be that this country has suffered short term pain but will suffer less long term pain than others that were quick fast to put up barriers.
Only time will answer these questions.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 15, 2020 4:30 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:[The health response and economic response are not in opposition to each other, despite how our government have been treating the issue, as shown by the fact the most successful countries in dealing with this situation, both in terms of saving lives and reopening the economy, took the precise opposite approach and didn't accept large numbers of casualties under any circumstances.


Far, far to early to make that statement.
Only when CV19 has abated can this governments actions be properly scrutinised.
They followed advice from the country's leading scientists. If anyone is to blame it is them.
But it may well be that this country has suffered short term pain but will suffer less long term pain than others that were quick fast to put up barriers.
Only time will answer these questions.


We are already seeing from the leaked info from SAGE and from the limited release of papers documenting the scientific advice given to the Government that the “following the science” line has been at best a gross oversimplification, at worst an outright lie. It’s incredibly presumptuous and clearly politically motivated to blame the scientists when they’ve had to react to an uncertain and rapidly changing situation with very little data when their advice has been interpreted in such a one-eyed fashion by the government.

For example, with schools the SAGE advice that has filtered out via parliamentary committee regarding the transmission of the disease stated that they have “low confidence that young children transmit the disease less than adults”, yet the government are telling us it’s all fine to send them back to school in a couple of weeks. The data simply isn’t there yet to make a confident scientific decision on whether it’s safe or not, but the government have decided to plough on regardless and only listen to the bits of advice they already agree with because they want to reopen. THAT IS NOT FOLLOWING THE SCIENCE.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby The Old TomCat » Fri May 15, 2020 4:59 pm

dursleydog wrote:


You are far better versed on CV19 than most people on forum, including me, so I cannot nor will disagree with what you claim.

It is a 100 years since politicians have faced such a threat as CV19 and are still learning about its effects.
Denmark, which you have used as a good model, has reintroduced schooling.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby paulK » Fri May 15, 2020 5:09 pm

Michael - don't bother to read as you're probably uninterested ;)

Was rather amused on our walk today. It was rubbish/recycling collection on some street. Plastic containers full - and I mean FULL - of empty bottles and discarded beer cans.

Wife was further amused when, at 2pm, suggested that as it must be 5 in the evening for some of the attendees she was pouring a glass of wine.

I guess that's one way of dampening the effects of Coronovirus.
My mileage; yours may vary, of course.....
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Fri May 15, 2020 5:26 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:


You are far better versed on CV19 than most people on forum, including me, so I cannot nor will disagree with what you claim.

It is a 100 years since politicians have faced such a threat as CV19 and are still learning about its effects.
Denmark, which you have used as a good model, has reintroduced schooling.


Of course this is an incredibly difficult situation for all involved in trying to combat it, scientists and politicians alike. My sympathy for the government runs out far faster however because they’ve been completely unwilling to admit when they’ve made a mistake throughout this process, and they’ve simply not been honest nor transparent with us. Quite clearly some extremely serious mistakes have been made, else we wouldn’t be in the situation we’re in. My frustration comes from the fact it looks like we’re still making them...

Denmark are an excellent example of how to reopen schools agreed, it can be done in the right way and in the right context. Denmark’s context is that they had an estimated 1,300 active cases, daily deaths in the single figures, and the virus under control via contact tracing and community testing, making it far less likely for the virus to get into a school setting in the first place. Whereas ours is an estimated 140,000 active cases and no contact tracing even close to being in place. We can follow their model but we can’t jump the gun in our desperation to restart the economy.
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