CoronaVirus

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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Too occasional fan » Thu May 28, 2020 9:37 am

I believe Belgium have been quite gung-ho in marking deaths down to Covid-19. We haven’t.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Greeners » Thu May 28, 2020 9:42 am

Hi
Too occasional fan wrote:
Eco-Exile wrote:And now Johnson is making a mockery of his select committee hearing. After appointing his own chair who then replaced two of the Conservative MPs with two others, the two replacements are filibustering by asking questions irrelevant to the topic scheduled for the first 20 minutes of the agenda.

This is not democracy.


If you’d like to see how our glorious PM got on at the committee hearing, watch this.

https://twitter.com/g_gosden/status/126 ... 59490?s=20

The Track trace and isolate process starts on Monday, he doesn’t know the facts, but blusters about. Legislation would be needed to get people to have to isolate, rather than make their own minds up. Parliament isn’t sitting just now.


If you want to see how Trace and Isolate works this is the dot gov site.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/nhs-test-an ... w-it-works

One line that caught my attention.
"When we contact people to advise them to self-isolate, we do not tell them your identity."

So if you get contacted and there is anyone you want to drop in the s**t, you can give their name as a contact even if they aren't.

This seems like the old East German STASI system.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Thu May 28, 2020 9:52 am

Foggy wrote:
dursleydog wrote:The UK now has the highest excess deaths per capita of any country for which there is reliable data, and is only just behind the US for total excess deaths.

https://amp.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c25 ... ssion=true

Just read that, there’s nothing more to say.


As of yesterday if you take the number of deaths per million population the current top ten are:

Belgium - 808
Spain - 580
UK - 552
Italy - 547
France - 438
Sweden - 418
Netherlands - 343
Ireland - 331
USA - 309
Switzerland - 222

I understand that Belgium and Spain have both been hit particularly badly by deaths in care situations, even worse than the UK. There will be many countries with far less reliable methods for recording deaths and causes than the USA and Europe, where the true picture may be a little uncertain. I also gather that Latin America is now feeling the worst of the virus and infection is increasing steadily.

(Caveat - there are a few countries with really high figures, namely Andorra, Equatorial Guinea and San Marino, but they have really small populations so just a handful of cases will have significantly skewed the figures).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Those figures do not provide an accurate picture.

Excess mortality stats take into account the differences in reporting from country to country, the deaths from coronavirus missed due to lack of testing, care home situations, hospital situations, community death situations, everything. They are the single fairest comparison, the government advisers have all said as much, and are quoted in the article.

All your stats show, taken from the official government released daily count, is that we are massively undercounting our deaths while the likes of Spain and Belgium are not. For example, Belgium included suspected covid deaths in their official figures, while we only include those who have tested positively for covid.

This article from The Health Foundation offers a good explanation, even if the actual figures are a little out of date. Of course the up to date figures are in the FT article I shared previously.
https://www.health.org.uk/news-and-comm ... omparisons
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Foggy » Thu May 28, 2020 10:19 am

Thanks for sharing the link,

I had heard about the excess mortality rates, which of course is a good way to measure unexpected deaths (attributable to an event such as COVID-19), but not seen them displayed in such fine detail. As I alluded to, there are different ways to record deaths, and not all countries are doing so in the same manner and this will skew the figures and make them difficult to interpret or compare at times. Some only count a death as COVID if that is the main cause, whereas others will record it if the person died with COVID but that may not have been their most significant condition or ailment.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Thu May 28, 2020 10:35 am

Foggy wrote:Thanks for sharing the link,

I had heard about the excess mortality rates, which of course is a good way to measure unexpected deaths (attributable to an event such as COVID-19), but not seen them displayed in such fine detail. As I alluded to, there are different ways to record deaths, and not all countries are doing so in the same manner and this will skew the figures and make them difficult to interpret or compare at times. Some only count a death as COVID if that is the main cause, whereas others will record it if the person died with COVID but that may not have been their most significant condition or ailment.


The quality of the data both domestically and internationally is improving all the time thankfully, it gives our scientific researchers and statisticians the tools they need to tackle this virus.
And like you say, the recording of covid deaths is a muddled and difficult process, especially when you're trying to get data out rapidly for daily stats. Excess deaths is far neater and more reliable, its a simple measure of how many would've survived had the virus not been a factor.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Foggy » Thu May 28, 2020 10:49 am

dursleydog wrote:Excess deaths is far neater and more reliable, its a simple measure of how many would've survived had the virus not been a factor.


Absolutely.

I have only spoken with one person, one of my siblings, who lost a friend to COVID. Clearly I don't know if there were other factors in play, such as an underlying health condition that might also have brought about an untimely end (the person was a 60 year old male), or whether their death would have been considered an excess.

I watched a really good Horizon documentary earlier in the week about COVID, in which they listed some of the factors that make people more likely to die from the condition. They expressed them as a multipliers, if you have one the risk to you is potentially increased. The major one was age but others included things like obesity, various health conditions and ethnicity. Their analysis was based on the information available, so that is always going to cast some doubt, but it did seem reasonably conclusive. There are clearly some factors that are within our gift to influence, but others that aren't. This information may help us navigate our way out of the crisis, or at the very least help mitigate the risk to ourselves and others.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Thu May 28, 2020 12:49 pm

Durham Police have concluded their investigation of Dominic Cummings’ actions. Worth remembered there’s two levels to this, the lockdown instructions and guidance given to us by government, and the actual law underpinning them. The police are naturally only interested in the latter.

They found that by travelling 260 miles to self isolate, he did not break the lockdown rules. Although it’s still pretty obvious he broke the guidance around those rules and the spirit of them.

However, they have concluded that his trip to Barnard Castle DID likely break the lockdown rules.
Given they would’ve only dealt with the issue in person with a verbal warning and an instruction to go home, and no fine, they have said it was a relatively minor breach of the law, but a breach nonetheless.

Will Downing St still defend him? They’ve claimed throughout he acted legally, now the Police say otherwise. How many Tory backbenchers were sitting on the fence until this as well I wonder. Cummings and Johnson wanted this issue to blow over, they’ve misjudged it badly.
Last edited by dursleydog on Thu May 28, 2020 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby The Old TomCat » Thu May 28, 2020 1:12 pm

Came across this set of videos by world renowned Doctor John Campbell.
He explains CV19 in layman's terms so easy to understand.
In this video he states categorically that anyone who has suffered CV19 will have complete immunity from reinfection.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uATMbGK__Tg
He call the video GOOD NEWS and it is.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Eco-Exile » Thu May 28, 2020 1:36 pm

Re deaths. Let’s take the Government view on this.

In April: ‘‘The UK prime minister added: “The only real comparison is going to be possible at the end of the epidemic when you look at total excess deaths.”

And we are leading in the global data of excess deaths per head. Only USA has more excess deaths in total.

My source is from today’s Financial Times, so the eminent/best news source in the country. For those who don’t follow the news, you should have viewing access here:

https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c25 ... 8ffde71bf0
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Thu May 28, 2020 1:41 pm

The Old TomCat wrote:Came across this set of videos by world renowned Doctor John Campbell.
He explains CV19 in layman's terms so easy to understand.
In this video he states categorically that anyone who has suffered CV19 will have complete immunity from reinfection.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uATMbGK__Tg
He call the video GOOD NEWS and it is.


Oh boy not again.... I've watched this out of interest and so many red flags.

He's not a world renowned doctor. He's a retired nurse who then did a PhD in teaching. He has no epidemiological experience or research experience.

He bases this entire claim on 1 single study (which came out a month ago. So he's about as on the ball as a dead seal to borrow a Thick of It phrase.) AND wilfully misinterprets it's findings. The study found that in South Korea, there were a number of people who tested positive for Covid twice leading to some early worry that there was no immunity from the virus and it was mutating too rapidly. However, the study he references followed up on this cases and found that they were a combination of some false positive tests, then followed by true positives. Or a true positive, followed by a false positive triggered by some shedding of dead virus. We know we can detect the antibodies and we know that there is a degree of immunity this generates.

What we categorically do not know, and this is where he is being extremely disingenuous, is claiming this means that once infected you've got complete immunity. We simply do not know how long the immunity we get from that infection lasts, and we will not know for quite some time. It could be annual like influenza, it could be semi-annual, it could be anything longer than the current time period we've already observed basically.

I've seen a lot of these "Good News" suspect scientists springing up on social media. Professor Karol Sikora is one, the man's been completely disgraced academically, yet because he can whack a title in front of his name people believe him. They're capitalising on the desperate need of everybody to be informed and the desperate want of that information to be reassuring. It's dangerous behaviour and highly damaging to the credibility of science as a whole. That's not to say absolutely everything he says is wrong, but he is massively overstating his credentials and projecting false confidence in his statements when there's really no justification here. Be far more wary wary out there on the internet OTC.

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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Thu May 28, 2020 1:48 pm

dursleydog wrote:Durham Police have concluded their investigation of Dominic Cummings’ actions. Worth remembered there’s two levels to this, the lockdown instructions and guidance given to us by government, and the actual law underpinning them. The police are naturally only interested in the latter.

They found that by travelling 260 miles to self isolate, he did not break the lockdown rules. Although it’s still pretty obvious he broke the guidance around those rules and the spirit of them.

However, they have concluded that his trip to Barnard Castle DID likely break the lockdown rules.
Given they would’ve only dealt with the issue in person with a verbal warning and an instruction to go home, and no fine, they have said it was a relatively minor breach of the law, but a breach nonetheless.

Will Downing St still defend him? They’ve claimed throughout he acted legally, now the Police say otherwise. How many Tory backbenchers were sitting on the fence until this as well I wonder. Cummings and Johnson wanted this issue to blow over, they’ve misjudged it badly.


Government Statement:
‘The police have made clear they are taking no action against Mr Cummings over his self-isolation and that going to Durham did not breach the regulations. The PM has said he believes Mr Cummings behaved reasonably and legally... he regards this issue as closed.’

This government believe they are above the law that they set for the rest of us. What an absolute farce. What an insult to each and every one of us.

EDIT: And before anyone points out the Police said "might" have broken the rules, yes I'm very aware. But all that actually means is that it isn't up to a police officer to determine definitively what is legal and what isn't. That is up to the courts. The statement says that they consider this have been a breach of the rules and would've taken action against Cummings at the time, in the form of speaking to him and telling him to return home. It's confusingly worded, and the government have capitalised on that confusion, but it still very much states Cummings broke the rules when the government are claiming he didn't.
Last edited by dursleydog on Thu May 28, 2020 2:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Eco-Exile » Thu May 28, 2020 2:17 pm

dursleydog wrote:
dursleydog wrote:Durham Police have concluded their investigation of Dominic Cummings’ actions. Worth remembered there’s two levels to this, the lockdown instructions and guidance given to us by government, and the actual law underpinning them. The police are naturally only interested in the latter.

They found that by travelling 260 miles to self isolate, he did not break the lockdown rules. Although it’s still pretty obvious he broke the guidance around those rules and the spirit of them.

However, they have concluded that his trip to Barnard Castle DID likely break the lockdown rules.
Given they would’ve only dealt with the issue in person with a verbal warning and an instruction to go home, and no fine, they have said it was a relatively minor breach of the law, but a breach nonetheless.

Will Downing St still defend him? They’ve claimed throughout he acted legally, now the Police say otherwise. How many Tory backbenchers were sitting on the fence until this as well I wonder. Cummings and Johnson wanted this issue to blow over, they’ve misjudged it badly.


Government Statement:
‘The police have made clear they are taking no action against Mr Cummings over his self-isolation and that going to Durham did not breach the regulations. The PM has said he believes Mr Cummings behaved reasonably and legally... he regards this issue as closed.’

This government believe they are above the law that they set for the rest of us. What an absolute farce. What an insult to each and every one of us.


We are at the ends of our patience now.

Four and a half years before the next election. And currently due to the lockdown recovery and economic situation emigrating back to a democratic country is not going to be feasible in the next couple of years.

Which means living in this undemocratic corrupt state. Something my great grandparents thought would never happen when they moved here from Central Europe.

We have decided the following course of action:

1. Ignore any instructions as part of track and trace. It is the only way to make a direct protest against the unelected officials who have captured the state.

2. Not download the NHS app. We do not want the shadowy figures who used public data illegally during the Brexit referendum and who now control the state to have access to our phone data.

Depending on the USA elections that might be a destination in a few years, however I suspect we will end up back in France or Switzerland. I fear once Cummings has dismantled the civil service and independent judiciary that there will be no way back for U.K. democracy.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Kentstripe » Thu May 28, 2020 3:30 pm

Track and trace is actually a pretty good method in containing the disease.

Regardless of your political opinions, surely everyone wants to help do the right thing and potentially save lives? Boycotting it could needlessly infect innocent people.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Too occasional fan » Thu May 28, 2020 3:39 pm

It depends how it is done.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Thu May 28, 2020 4:00 pm

Kentstripe wrote:Track and trace is actually a pretty good method in containing the disease.

Regardless of your political opinions, surely everyone wants to help do the right thing and potentially save lives? Boycotting it could needlessly infect innocent people.


It absolutely is, when done effectively. Why it’s taken this long for us to restart (the best cases never stopped contact tracing) I don’t know, especially with how unprepared it seems to be. The leader of the scheme admitted to MPs the physical contact tracing won’t be fully operational until the end of June, and there’s no clue as to when the app will be ready. But there’s no doubt that when it is fully up and running it’ll bring that R rate down if compliance is high enough.

That said, when Matt Hancock this morning told us it was our “civic duty” to self-isolate when asked to, and that they might make it mandatory and enforce it with police action, while simultaneously claiming Cummings did nothing wrong and was legal and responsible, really really stings. I can see why people are furious about it.

But when all is said and done, if everyone complies with the self-isolation, lives will be saved. It’s a shared responsibility between our government and ourselves. Our government utterly failing to do their part and lead by example doesn’t excuse us failing to do ours, in fact I’d argue it makes it all the more important. Dominic Cummings is a rulebreaker who thinks he’s above accountability, so we have to be better than him. Cummings doesn’t give a damn about any of us, so we have to act altruistically and protect each other. I have security concerns about the app (there’s no need to use a centralised data storage system, massive security risk), but for gods sake if a contact tracer asks you to self-isolate self-isolate.

When this is over, there will be complete strangers walking the streets of this country who will be alive because of our actions right here right now, strangers who will never know you saved them. No one wants to look back at themselves in a few years time and have that guilt on their conscience, keep calm and beat this virus by doing what we have to do. (And then vote this bunch of chancers out at the earliest possible opportunity if you feel they’ve utterly let you down at a time of crisis.)
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Greeners » Thu May 28, 2020 4:42 pm

Hi
dursleydog wrote: I have security concerns about the app (there’s no need to use a centralised data storage system, massive security risk),


You should have concerns, but you apparently don't, you have used just such a system to post the above items and all your other contributions.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby TreeinWillsbridge » Thu May 28, 2020 5:45 pm

I'm not going to download this app of their's it's far too intrusive.

There is a very good chance that another witness saw the pr@t again on the 19th April in Durham, just doesn't want to be named.

The good news is that us singles who have locked down on our own, can at last meet friends again, even if socially distanced! :D
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Eco-Exile » Thu May 28, 2020 5:55 pm

TreeinWillsbridge wrote:I'm not going to download this app of their's it's far too intrusive.

There is a very good chance that another witness saw the pr@t again on the 19th April in Durham, just doesn't want to be named.

The good news is that us singles who have locked down on our own, can at last meet friends again, even if socially distanced! :D


We can’t apparently visit family unless we do a ten hour round day trip as we can’t stay over, even in an uninhabited annexe accommodation. We will stay over for a few days though, not enter the main family home and keep our social distance. The Government have confirmed in their defence of Cummings that it is legal and reasonable for us to travel and stay in second home or holiday accommodation.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Eco-Exile » Thu May 28, 2020 6:07 pm

Kentstripe wrote:Track and trace is actually a pretty good method in containing the disease.

Regardless of your political opinions, surely everyone wants to help do the right thing and potentially save lives? Boycotting it could needlessly infect innocent people.


I would not call it a political opinion issue. Take the press conference today: science advisors blocked from answering certain questions, and no follow-up questions allowed from any journalists, who are simply switched off and muted. Sure, if you think there is a debate to be had between supporting democracy and freedom of the press and undemocratic autocracy then you could call it a political conversation, however I would believe it to be a legal and human problem.

As for harm of risk to infection of others, that is part of the point of the protest; to show the government that their actions do have consequences and they need to be more responsible and accountable.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Greeners » Thu May 28, 2020 6:11 pm

Hi
TreeinWillsbridge wrote:I'm not going to download this app of their's it's far too intrusive.

There is a very good chance that another witness saw the pr@t again on the 19th April in Durham, just doesn't want to be named.

The good news is that us singles who have locked down on our own, can at last meet friends again, even if socially distanced! :D


The A1 (M1 if used that on the southern section) is lined with cameras and there are bound to be others he would have passed after leaving the A1, so they would be able to track him if they wanted to. His mobile provider could tell them which masts he was in range of at any given time.
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