CoronaVirus

This board is a temporary one for topics and posts to to with the Coronavirus pandemic. Please put all relevant material in here, rather than the other boards.

Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Greeners » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:49 pm

Hi
So ToF, I am trying to understand your point.
You appear to be saying that the limited numbers in the chamber plus on-line attendees plus digital voting was undemocratic and yet you also seem to be advocating the disenfranchisement of members with age/underlying condition problems or those with vulnerable families.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Too occasional fan » Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:51 pm

Greeners wrote:Hi
So ToF, I am trying to understand your point.
You appear to be saying that the limited numbers in the chamber plus on-line attendees plus digital voting was undemocratic and yet you also seem to be advocating the disenfranchisement of members with age/underlying condition problems or those with vulnerable families.


No. The opposite. Every MP should be able to vote. The digital system allowed this.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby The Old TomCat » Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:21 am

Silver Surfer wrote:
The Old TomCat wrote:At long last a GOOD NEW STORY
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... otent.html

Italian doctors are claiming that CoronaVirus is weakening to become a shadow of the disease that spread throughout the world.
Lets hope so.


Why do you bother linking to the drivel that papers write to sell copies. It is a non-story. If you bother to read it, it does say:

"But scientists hit back and said it was dangerous to assume this was happening
They argued there is not yet any scientific evidence for the doctors' claims "

Oh cummon SS,
Read the story and it is the doctors on the front line who are claiming the virus is diminishing.
Scientists thousands of miles away from real hands -on experience may have different opinions.
I believe the doctors who are dealing with the disease on an hour to hour basis.

And reading the Mail puts me in a healthy majority.
Mail = 1,134,184
Guardian = 126,879
If the Mail was so bad they would not be getting over a million more daily readers than an alternative left wing newspaper paper.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Eco-Exile » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:17 am

Being in the majority does not always mean correct.

The whole debate is stupid anyway. Doctors on the front line no doubt experience a ‘weaker’ virus because a) fewer admissions arriving in hospital and b) new admissions are stronger people (as weaker ones died already) so recover from the virus faster.

Meanwhile the scientists are saying that the virus itself is not changing in strength, which is correct.

The virus stays the same strength, but if people are more resilient and careful the effects and spread will be weaker.

Quite a basic and obvious thing. If 1.1 million people didn’t know that and still don’t know that after a sensationalist article then I pity what it must be like to live in such ignorance.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:22 am

The Old TomCat wrote:
Silver Surfer wrote:
The Old TomCat wrote:At long last a GOOD NEW STORY
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... otent.html

Italian doctors are claiming that CoronaVirus is weakening to become a shadow of the disease that spread throughout the world.
Lets hope so.


Why do you bother linking to the drivel that papers write to sell copies. It is a non-story. If you bother to read it, it does say:

"But scientists hit back and said it was dangerous to assume this was happening
They argued there is not yet any scientific evidence for the doctors' claims "

Oh cummon SS,
Read the story and it is the doctors on the front line who are claiming the virus is diminishing.
Scientists thousands of miles away from real hands -on experience may have different opinions.
I believe the doctors who are dealing with the disease on an hour to hour basis.

And reading the Mail puts me in a healthy majority.
Mail = 1,134,184
Guardian = 126,879
If the Mail was so bad they would not be getting over a million more daily readers than an alternative left wing newspaper paper.



Hi OTC,

So the claim from some Italian doctors was that the measured viral load they were observing in swab tests was decreasing, and this looks to be true. However, a tiny handful then linked this to the virus mutating and decreasing in potency, but this is jumping the gun. There’s lots of reasons as to why the viral load could be decreasing and it’s irresponsible scientific behaviour to confidently link it to changes to the potency of the virus at this stage.

Viral load measured in these swabs will also be a function of initial infection dose, not just symptom severity. What could be happening is that lockdown measures and behaviour changes are decreasing the magnitude of initial infection doses of the virus. Someone infected in an enclosed space (eg. Public transport, no masks, limited social distancing) compared with an outdoor space (touched an infected surface in a park and transferred to mouth) will have a much higher initial viral load. Lockdown measures are cutting down the high viral load infection circumstances greater than the low ones, and this is being reflected in swab tests that these doctors have observed.

Also, in Italy the average age of confirmed cases has been decreasing and younger people tend to show less severe symptoms, so that will be playing a part. As the number of cases comes down, mild and symptomless cases are no longer being overlooked as they were at the peak of the pandemic in Italy and indeed elsewhere.

In addition, those studying the genetic makeup of the virus have not detected any change in the virus that would cause it to lose potency. This is actually good news that the virus has so far kept genetically stable, as it’s that stability that keeps our immunity intact and makes vaccine development easier. Of course, the virus still has the potential to mutate in the future and this could effect the severity, transmissibility, or antigens (which would potentially render any immunity useless).

So there is some good news there, the virus so far hasn’t mutated much which bodes well for vaccine development (tho of course this can change at any time) and it likely shows lockdown measures are highly effective at preventing high viral load doses. But there really isn’t any evidence to suggest that at this point (again, the virus could mutate and the facts could change) that the virus has at all decreased in potency.

(And just as an relevant side point on data only showing half the picture, a lot of people read the Guardian online and the low print numbers reflect the fact it’s readership is younger, not necessarily smaller)
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby The Old TomCat » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:36 am

I’m getting a lot of flak from the usual suspects, but I take great comfort in knowing it is a backhanded compliment because my views echo those of the General Population.
The political thread on this forum is utterly dominated by Labour supporting Remainers.
I voted for Brexit and voted Conservative in last election to ensure that UK leaves the EU.
That does not make me their best friend.
One of the regular posters remains incandescent with rage that Boris won GE19 and has been making regular disparaging remarks about the government, Boris & especially Dominic Cummings even before his trip to Durham.
Therefore nobody can expect less than him putting the boot into DC despite knowing DC did not break any rules.
And surprise, surprise none of our usual suspects have condemned Tahir Ali MP [Labour], Stephen Kinnock MP [Labour], Kevan Jones MP [Labour] or Nia Griffiths MP [Labour] who actually broke the rules (big time) by attending a birthday party, going on social visits or attending a funeral
Hypocrisy screams out loud.

I have never condoned DCs trip up north but understand the reason he did it. And because I’m a caring person with compassion for people in his position, I’m prepared to accept the bullying flak that is being posted.

Boris & DC are the two best people in the country to lead the UK out of this current crisis bar none. While they were both in their sick beds, debateable decisions were made. The alternative could have been (heaven forbid) Jeremy Corbyn & Diane Abbott.
Yes Boris did take a dip north in the opinion polls because of the Cummings sage but it has stabilized and is now going upwards. Even at its lowest, Boris had more support than current Labour leader.


Thank god football & F1 will soon be back on the telly.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby The Old TomCat » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:42 am

dursleydog wrote:(And just as an relevant side point on data only showing half the picture, a lot of people read the Guardian online and the low print numbers reflect the fact it’s readership is younger, not necessarily smaller)


Guardian online readership is tiny compared to the Mail, who has the largest online readership of any newspaper in the world.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby dursleydog » Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:37 am

This is just sad. The politicisation of a genuine crisis to try and score points over general elections, party leaders, and referendums long gone is petty and unnecessary. Claiming opinions are invalid purely because of past political affiliation as a means of shutting out criticism kills healthy and reasonable debate.

All I’ve tried to do is provide more scientific info surrounding the coronavirus crisis as I genuinely thought it would be helpful. People can ignore my input if they’d like, but spreading fake news, conspiracy theories, and inaccurate scientific information is outright dangerous when we all need clarity and reality, and I can’t sit back and watch it spread knowing the consequences of that. I’ve tried to be fair, polite, calm whenever possible. I’ve tried to keep politics out of it unless the issue becomes inherently political such as the Cummings situation did, because politics is entirely secondary to the public health crisis, and to peoples lives.

I’m friends with Conservatives and Brexit supporters, Lib Dem’s, Greens, SNP supporters and I have civil disagreement with plenty of them. I read a variety of newspapers online. I value hearing differences of opinion because it increases the value and reliability of your own if you can legitimately defend it and evolve it where right to. I never claim my opinion speaks for the nation because I’m not that arrogant, people are far more complicated and far better than simple “that’s my team and I’ll back them no matter what” politics. People are far better than those who would twist people’s genuine concern over 60,000 deaths and counting, and their fears of a 2nd peak, into some kind of personal vendetta.

I’m dealing with a fair amount going on during this pandemic, my mum who’s been in and out of hospitals so many times with covid complications I've legitimately lost count, my partner in tears with anxiety each night because she’s back working 11 hour days in a highly covid unsafe environment, my friend suffering awful domestic abuse aided by the trappings of lockdown while we try and provide help and some kind of route out for her. I don’t need any more of this rubbish on here as well just from genuinely trying to help, I’m done.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Too occasional fan » Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:45 am

Please don’t go, dd, your input has been astonishing and illuminating.

OTC displays all the behaviour of a narcissistic blinkered idiot with no self awareness.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Foggy » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:22 am

Too occasional fan wrote:Please don’t go, dd, your input has been astonishing and illuminating.



+1
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Silver Surfer » Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:23 am

Echo that.

DD, please continue your informative postings. I have learnt more about coronavirus from your posts that from the BBC or any newspaper.
No animals were harmed during the creation of this message, but some electrons became agitated.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Eco-Exile » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:25 am

The Old TomCat wrote:I’m getting a lot of flak from the usual suspects, but I take great comfort in knowing it is a backhanded compliment because my views echo those of the General Population.
The political thread on this forum is utterly dominated by Labour supporting Remainers.
I voted for Brexit and voted Conservative in last election to ensure that UK leaves the EU.
That does not make me their best friend.
One of the regular posters remains incandescent with rage that Boris won GE19 and has been making regular disparaging remarks about the government, Boris & especially Dominic Cummings even before his trip to Durham.
Therefore nobody can expect less than him putting the boot into DC despite knowing DC did not break any rules.
And surprise, surprise none of our usual suspects have condemned Tahir Ali MP [Labour], Stephen Kinnock MP [Labour], Kevan Jones MP [Labour] or Nia Griffiths MP [Labour] who actually broke the rules (big time) by attending a birthday party, going on social visits or attending a funeral
Hypocrisy screams out loud.

I have never condoned DCs trip up north but understand the reason he did it. And because I’m a caring person with compassion for people in his position, I’m prepared to accept the bullying flak that is being posted.

Boris & DC are the two best people in the country to lead the UK out of this current crisis bar none. While they were both in their sick beds, debateable decisions were made. The alternative could have been (heaven forbid) Jeremy Corbyn & Diane Abbott.
Yes Boris did take a dip north in the opinion polls because of the Cummings sage but it has stabilized and is now going upwards. Even at its lowest, Boris had more support than current Labour leader.


Thank god football & F1 will soon be back on the telly.


TLDR. Apart from the first line which was the usual nonsense.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Eco-Exile » Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:32 am

The Old TomCat wrote:
dursleydog wrote:(And just as an relevant side point on data only showing half the picture, a lot of people read the Guardian online and the low print numbers reflect the fact it’s readership is younger, not necessarily smaller)


Guardian online readership is tiny compared to the Mail, who has the largest online readership of any newspaper in the world.


Mail total audience 29.2m per month, Guardian 25.2m per month. Not hugely different on a global scale.

https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/uk-newsp ... 018-pamco/

Anyway, as DD says who cares about media readership levels or stupid pathetic oneupmanship during a pandemic.

The fact is scientific evidence shows that the virus is not mutating or changing. Whether that is reported or not in the Lancet, Mail, Guardian or back of a cereal packet makes no difference. The fact is the fact. Facts are not political or opinion, they are just facts.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby cookiemonster » Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:05 pm

How many Daily mail online readers are there for the soft-porn clickbait? Loads I reckon.

Comparing the two is a bit apples and pears.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby NewForestRover » Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:02 pm

Too occasional fan wrote:Please don’t go, dd, your input has been astonishing and illuminating.


^^ this ^^


Silver Surfer wrote:DD, please continue your informative postings. I have learnt more about coronavirus from your posts that from the BBC or any newspaper.


^^ and this ^^
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby andymac26 » Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:45 pm

Empty vessels DD and all that.....your posts over the last few months have been enlightening, brilliantly crafted, and well explained. Would be a real shame to lose them.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby FGR-Ledge » Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:33 pm

Agreed.

Don't leave DD, although we have very different opinions on this Corona Virus, you always provide sound arguments and don't resort to personal abuse.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby michael » Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:23 pm

Now here's a question (where's DD when you need him ).

I thought one of the better questions today (is anyone else longing for one of the Secretary's of State to say-thats a rubbish/stupid /pathetic question ,instead of every question being a great ,important and interesting one ** ),was when asked why if there is loads of testing capacity ,tests are not automatically actioned on track and trace contacts .

Accepting that the virus incubation period is from memory 5-14 days, so would not necessarily show up anyway,and agree a bit pointless/expensive doing a test if it the case that a test only shows up once someone has got symptons, and that the test is not a 'predictor '; but at the same time (and this is the bit i do not know ) i anticipate that the 'test' is still ahead of the contact by maybe a couple of days, and would detect the virus in someone maybe at least a couple of days before you actually start to feel a bit poorly ,plus some of those contacts may be asymptomatic anyway,so it seems they would not be tested -but may be positive regardless .
So is the test-even marginally-ahead of the physical signs of the illness-logic and a very limited understanding of the human body and how a virus does its work , tells me it must be ,but i just do not know ?

** -talking of asking rubbish and stupid questions, or simply repeating someone else's question from the day before -has Beth Rigby been sent on assignment to the Serbian salt mines ?Sam Coates seems to have usurped her - some may allege not that difficult ? They used to alternate but we now get cheery Sam every day .
Last edited by michael on Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby Eco-Exile » Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:59 pm

michael wrote:Now here's a question (where's DD when you need him ).

I thought one of the better questions today (is anyone else longing for one of the Secretary's of State to say-thats a rubbish/stupid /pathetic question ,instead of every question being a great ,important and interesting one ** ),was when asked why if there is loads of testing capacity ,tests are not automatically actioned on track and trace contacts .

Accepting that the virus incubation period is from memory 5-14 days, so would not necessarily show up anyway,and agree a bit pointless/expensive doing a test if it the case that a test only shows up once someone has got symptons, and that the test is not a 'predictor '; but at the same time (and this is the bit i do not know ) i anticipate that the 'test' is still ahead of the contact by maybe a couple of days, and would detect the virus in someone maybe at least a couple of days before you actually start to feel a bit poorly ,plus some of those contacts may be asymptomatic anyway,so it seems they would not be tested -but may be positive regardless .
So is the test-even marginally-ahead of the physical signs of the illness-logic and a very limited understanding of the human body and how a virus does its work , tells me it must be ,but i just do not know ?

** -talking of asking rubbish and stupid questions, or simply repeating someone else's question from the day before -has Beth Rigby been sent on assignment to the Serbian salt mines ?Sam Coates seems to have usurped her - some may allege not that difficult ? They used to alternate but we now get cheery Sam every day .


I think it is due to this:

If person A reports symptoms then persons B & C who they came close to will be contacted as part of tracing. There is no point persons B&C being tested until they know that Person A is infected. It may take a couple of days for Person to get a test, a couple of days for results and maybe then a need for a second test. If Person A is negative then B&C do not need to be tested. This saves two tests for people who have symptoms, rather than using up capacity.
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Re: CoronaVirus

Postby michael » Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:51 pm

Thanks -i can see and follow that now .
all good.

It does leave the question on the table though of how many (if any ) days in advance of anyone getting actual symptoms can the test detect covid in someone .

if its for example just one day-and for person A does not display symptoms until day 14 -that person should in theory be tested 7 times -i bet thats not done .

on the other hand ,if a test can tell someone has the disease maybe 7 days before that person starts to actually fill poorly ,it would surely make sense to give immediate tests to all the contacts .

either way-the above is policy/strategy. i am simply interested in 'following the science ' and thus how many days (if any ) in advance of showing symptoms, can the test actually detect that you've got it mate
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